Kentucky Derby handicapping (and post-race discussion) thread

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Very wet track today at Churchill Downs.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Calvin Borel, who's riding Street Sense tomorrow (4-1), has had a huge day today at CHD. He has three wins in eight races.

Some of the jockeys who had BIG-TIME success in last year's spring meet and earlier at Keeneland are on longshots--Leparoux, Guidry and Bejarano.

I like Circular Quay, myself. Don't have a whole lot of numbers to back it up, but it's a medium starter who finishes strong and that's often what it takes to win the Derby.

As for whoever made the comment about non-favorites winning it, that was true for awhile but has kind of gone away lately, after Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro (who didn't go off as the favorite but was the favorite all week) in the last few years. But several other myths have been busted recently too, such as the "no gelding" rule (Funny Cide).

Rags to Riches is the fave in the Oaks today and, looking at the field history, she's the best horse. But the experts are saying it's one of the deepest Oaks in recent memory, and the guy on TV just threw out High Heels as his winner. Of course, Lemon's Forever was a big-time longshot last year.

I'm going with Circular Quay in the Derby and, since Rags to Riches is a 3-2 fave right now, I'll take Cotton Blossom in the Oaks.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

My Oaks pick was looking good coming to the stretch before Rags to Bitches had to bump her into the rail. Just goes to show ya, you can't ever trust a woman.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Okay, so I just saw the replay and it wasn't Rags to Riches that bumped Cotton Blossom, but I couldn't come up with a good joke for the horse that did.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

My exacta box is Hard Spun, Nobiz, Curlin, Street Sense and Circular Quay right now.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

I'm going to grab some quick lunch - then when I come back I'm going to sit down make my picks and then head down to Lincoln Park to place my bets before heading off to a favorite watering hole where there will be a number of pools for the Derby.

(Really I'm only telling you this so that I can bump this thread to the top of the heap - come on people - I need the information)

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

We got a guy going over to the nearest OTB, had him throw 10 bucks down on Scat Daddy to win. Really wanted to go with Storm in May, but last year I went against my early "head" pick and took my "heart" pick. No idea who the "heart" pick was, but the "head" pick was Barbaro. So, yeah, we're gonna be a little smarter this year.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

At this point in the day here's how I'm leaning:

I've got Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Scat Daddy in my exacta box, and also am pairing Curlin and Nobiz Like Shobiz and Curlin and Any Given Saturday in separate exacta boxes.

Like ijag, I'm a big fan of Albarado and like him on Curlin. I'll also take a $2 flyer on Teuflesberg ... well, just because. Maybe he'll channel former Mets 2B Tim Teufel.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Here comes the ESPN Barbaro weep-fest. As someone who still has a photo of Barbaro crossing the Churchill wire taped to his cube wall, I feel confident that this will be utter schlock. Just wait 'til we get to Storm in May.

Also, Hank Goldberg is already drunk. Worth noting.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Storm In Stop? . . . if you have access to speculation in terms of who's going to finish LAST, sign up, now . . .

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Agreed.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

That was just insane. What a run.