Kentucky Derby handicapping (and post-race discussion) thread

Re: The Kentucky Derby

Nice.

 

Re: The Kentucky Derby

Liquidity could be the worst name for a horse I've ever seen. Sounds like a rejected Queensryche song title.

Haven't seen the fractions, but I guess I'd go with Cowtown Cat.

 

Re: The Kentucky Derby

Go with Imawildandcrazyguy

Reminds me a lot of Wild and Crazy Kids. The show back in the day on Nickelodeon. I loved when they exploded the RC Cars.

 

Re: The Kentucky Derby

Looked at the past performances last night.

I did not take into account the track could be sloppy. If that happens, all this goes out the window and it'll merit another look Saturday afternoon before I head to the windows. Not one of the horses in the field has won on a sloppy track at a race longer than six furlongs. If the track comes up muddy on Saturday, it's a crap shoot.

This looks like it’s a pretty wide open race. There appears to be a group of five or six horses that will get decent support, and I think the favorite is likely to be at least 3-to-1, which is a good deal. There are going to be some very good horses at 10-to-1 or 12-to-1 or better, so I think there’s a good chance for lucrative payouts.

I’ll throw out of all my wagers Imawildandcrazyguy, Bwana Bull, Teuflesberg, Sedgefield, Storm In May, Zanjero, Liquidity, Stormello, and Dominican. Some of them have decent races to their credit, but they look like players shuttling between Class AA and AAA and not major-leaguers. I think the only way any of this group finishes in the money is if they cut across the infield.

I think your winner comes from the group of Street Sense, Curlin, Any Given Saturday or Scat Daddy. Horses like Great Hunter and Tiago have the ability to spring an upset, but this would be like needing a 66 in the final round from a golfer who’s never broken 70 in his life. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. But if you want to take a shot with horses that could be 18-1 or 20-1, these two wouldn’t be bad choices. Most of Great Hunter’s races have been just OK. Any Given Saturday is always in contention with 100 yards to run, so maybe he doesn't encounter traffic problems and with a little luck he has a decent shot. What I like about Scat Daddy is that he’s improving . . . peaking at the right time.

Circular Quay’s two most impressive races are come-from-efforts, winning after trailing by 10 lengths in his most recent race, and winning after trailing by 13 last fall at Saratoga. I doubt whether there’s enough speed in the Derby, however, to give the come-from-behind horses what they need most — lots of tired horses in the stretch. Nor am I a fan of horses prepping for the biggest race of their career by not racing in two months.

Tiago (a value play at 15-1) improved quite a bit in his last race, but having him do it again probably is unlikely. And that was a huge come-from-behind effort (see preceding paragraph). I read Cowtown Cat similarly; I don’t see him improving in the Derby like he did his last time out.

If you're looking for probably the best value in the race, Hard Spun has five wins in six starts and he's 15-1 in the morning line. Where else are you going to find such a good deal? I wish I had a better handle on what his trainer was trying to do in Monday's workout. It's like your final tune-up before a marathon is running a quarter of a mile. That puzzles me. (Note: He also won a race by 5+ lengths on a sloppy track, though that race was just six furlongs.)

I wish I had more to go on with Curlin, who has three lifetime starts and three wins (by 12+, 5+ and 10+ lengths). His second half of the Arkansas Derby looked SO good. He just might be the real deal, and though the “experts” say to disregard his chances because he was unraced as a 2-year-old, I’ll trust his trainer, Steve Asmussen, who knows what he’s doing.

So, my exactas and trifectas will focus on Curlin (2) and Scat Daddy (14), with various combinations involving five or six others.
Pressed to pick between those two, make it . . . Scat Daddy.

Good luck to one and all.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

I doubt Great Hunter will win from the No. 20 post position. I think Street Sense is your likely winner, but I have Hard Spun as a strong longshot pick.

 

Re: The Kentucky Derby

Mods - I didn't realize that inky had already started a Derby thread when I started this one. Both threads have good info (especially that last post by trifectarich) - maybe you could merge this one into Inky's just so we have all the info in one place?

And I thank you for your support

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Todd Bergey - newswriter at a paper along the Mississippi River in Arkansas says this:
------------------------------
Todd's prediction:

Hard Spun. -- He has had two stake's wins this year and a great pedigree through Northern Dancer.

Alternative selections: Sam P. and Liquidity.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Box with stoob and simone

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Yay! Not only does my boy Robby Albarado have a Derby mount, but he's on the favorite!

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Circular Quay, Tiago, Scat Daddy. I'll get to the correct order by post time.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

I'm going to box an exacta w/Tiago and Nobiz Like Showbiz.

 

Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

Going with a $2 Trifecta of Street Sense to win over Scat Daddy, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Nobiz like Shobiz to place and show.