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Kentucky Derby handicapping (and post-race discussion) thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Inky_Wretch, Apr 30, 2007.

  1. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

    drf.com (Daily Racing Form) will give you more information than you can possibly comprehend. But listening to their "experts" is like listening to all those just before the first round of the NCAA Tournament; there are so many conflicting opinions that you can't possibly sort out the junk from the worthwhile material.

    And I will disagree with those who think the Derby is a bad betting proposition. Along with the Breeders' Cup races, this is exactly what you look for to make some serious $. If you have any semblance of handicapping ability it's easy to throw out about a third of the (probable) 20 starters, which have absolutely no business running in the race. That leaves you with about a dozen horses, which is more than manageable.
     
  2. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

    Yep, the luck factor is good and bad depending on how you view it. The prices with Giacomo two years ago were unreal. On one hand you'd think "who the f-- would bet that horse?", then again you could say there are no real nags in the Derby and weird things happen. I know some of the purists hate handicapping the Derby, but it's not like they sit out the race either.
     
  3. Blitz

    Blitz Active Member

    Re: Kentucky Derby handicapping thread

    Scat Daddy, Stormello and Great Hunter in a trifecta box will do some good.
    Get Scat Daddy or Great Hunter to win it.
    Desormeaux, Nakatani and Prado are the best riders going in this year's field.
    Scat Daddy or Great Hunter - pick one of em and do the exacta, too, if you get a vision.
     
  4. The Kentucky Derby

    We have some pretty good horse people on the board and I was curious what picks people will be making on this Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Here are the current odds (which I'm sure will change day-by-day).


    Odds to win the 133rd Kentucky Derby - May 5th, 2007

    Any Given Saturday 12/1
    Circular Quay 7/1
    Cowtown Cat 15/1
    Curlin 3/1
    Dominican 20/1
    Great Hunter 17/1
    Hard Spun 12/1
    Liquidity 30/1
    Nobiz Like Shobiz 8/1
    Reporting for Duty 100/1
    Sam P. 60/1
    Scat Daddy 8/1
    Storm in May 80/1
    Stormello 25/1
    Street Sense 6/1
    Teuflesberg 50/1
    Tiago 14/1
    Zanjero 30/1

    Cowtown Cat and Dominican are my two early favorites and I hope their odds stay up in the double digits. What are your picks? Any good bets in the earlier races?
     
  5. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    Who are the jockeys?
     
  6. slappy4428

    slappy4428 Active Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    I can see one member being all into Scat Daddy...
     
  7. Ace

    Ace Well-Known Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    1. Sedgefield Leparoux 50-1
    2. Curlin Albarado 7-2
    3. Zanjero Bridgmohan 30-1
    4. Storm in May Leyva 30-1
    5. Imawildandcrazyguy Guidry 50-1
    6. Cowtown Cat Jara 20-1
    7. Street Sense Borel 4-1
    8. Hard Spun Pino 15-1
    9. Liquidity Flores 30-1
    10. Teuflesberg Elliott 30-1
    11. Bwana Bull Castellano 50-1
    12. Nobiz Like Shobiz Velasquez 8-1
    13. Sam P. Dominguez 20-1
    14. Scat Daddy Prado 10-1
    15. Tiago Smith 15-1
    16. Circular Quay Velazquez 8-1
    17. Stormello Desormeaux 30-1
    18. Any Given Saturday Gomez 12-1
    19. Dominican Bejarano 20-1
    20. Great Hunter Nakatani 15-1
     
  8. Re: The Kentucky Derby

    Here's whose riding some of the favorites. Ace has the full list.

    Robby Albarado will ride Curlin
    Rider of Street Sense will be Calvin Borel
    Circular Quay will be ridden by John Velazquez (and trained by Todd Pletcher)
    Cornelio Velasquez will ride Nobiz like Showbiz
    Edgar Prado will ride Scat Daddy (another Pletcher horse)

    The Pletcher / Velazquez combo is worth plunking a few dollars down on Circular Quay
     
  9. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    Take Tiago.
     
  10. KYSportsWriter

    KYSportsWriter Well-Known Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    Go baby, go! :D

    For those of you who may be at the Derby this weekend, it's supposed to rain all day Saturday...
     
  11. Buck

    Buck Well-Known Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    No horse from Baffert.
    No horse from Lukas.
    No horse from Zito.
    When's the last time that happened?

    I haven't looked at the Beyer numbers, plus I'm probably not betting the Derby this year for the first time in 10 years.
     
  12. GB-Hack

    GB-Hack Active Member

    Re: The Kentucky Derby

    Who closes well? That's the horse I want. The stretch usually kills front runners.
     
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