Kentucky Derby 2009

1 West Side Bernie (Elliott) 30-1
2 Musket Man (Coa) 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff (Velasquez) 30-1
4 Advice (Douglas) 30-1
5 Hold Me Back (Desormeaux) 15-1
6 Friesan Fire (Saez) 5-1
7 Papa Clem (Bejarano) 20-1
8 Mine That Bird (Borel) 50-1
9 Join in the Dance (Decarlo) 50-1
10 Regal Ransom (Garcia) 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy (Smith) 20-1
12 General Quarters (Leparoux) 20-1
13 I Want Revenge (Talamo) 3-1
14 Atomic Rain (Bravo) 50-1
15 Dunkirk (Prado) 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile (Gomez) 4-1
17 Summer Bird (Rosier) 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide (Bridgmohan) 50-1
19 Desert Party (Dominguez) 15-1
20 Flying Private (Albarado) 50-1

 

Hold Me Back is starting to interest me a little.

 

Everything I've read says the horse is there. And it could get much worse than the six hole. The draw is beautiful for all of the top horses. Six could get a little crowded for FF, but in a long race like the Derby, slow starts can be avenged (just ask Calvin Borel and Street Sense). Plus, the longest shots are all in the worst positions (1-4 and 17-20).

 

Not to mention that Dunkirk, at 4-1, would have been left WAY out of this field in a 14-horse race (with the original field). He was almost on the bubble of a 20-horse field until everyone started getting hurt.

I'm not sure if he ranks in the top 14 of this field graded earnings wise, but it's close. Twenty might be too many in some years (last year, especially, when there weren't 15 deserving horses in the field, if that many), but 14 is too few more often than not.

There have been a lot of good horses come from the bottom five or six of this race. And you effectively eliminate almost all of the horses who don't run as two-year-olds by capping it at 14. They don't have the time to make top 14 money.

 

Give me the $50 and I'll put it all on Pampelmousse for you.

 

Ah, the joys of the cupidity of the racetrack.

 

Early odds are out:

West Side Bernie (30-1), Musket Man (20-1), Mr. Hot Stuff (30-1), Advice (30-1), Hold Me Back (15-1), Friesan Fire (5-1), Papa Clem (20-1), Mine That Bird (50-1), Join in the Dance (50-1), Regal Ransom (30-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), General Quarters (20-1), I Want Revenge (3-1), Atomic Rain (50-1), Dunkirk (4-1), Pioneerof the Nile (4-1), Summer Bird (50-1), Nowhere to Hide (50-1), Desert Party (15-1), Flying Private (50-1).

 

I get confused - is I Want Revenge the name of the Kentucky Derby favorite or the name of the Selena Roberts book on A-Rod?

 

Speaking of Fresian Fire, the latest New Yorker has a great piece on Larry Jones. You will have to register, but it is worth it.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/04/090504fa_fact_boyer

 

OK, handicapping is done. This is like the NCAA Tournament bracket; there comes a point where I can look at this forever and not change my mind on anything. Assuming there are no weather problems that give us an off track . . .

I'm throwing out 4 (Advice), 6 (Friesan Fire), 8 (Mine That Bird), 9 (Join in the Dance), 14 (Atomic Rain), 18 (Nowhere to Hide) and 20 (Flying Private). If any of those horses finish in the money, all my exotic tickets get ripped up.

Win tickets on 11 (Chocolate Candy) and 19 (Desert Party). Those odds are too good to pass up.

I've got trifectas with 13 (I Want Revenge), 7 (Papa Clem) and 15 (Dunkirk) in the win position.

Good luck to all, and let's hope we have no need to see the track vet.

 

I agree that nobody wants to see the track "vet" but my mind read your statement as track "wet" and if it's wet - I think Friesan Fire finishes in the money. Unlike March Madness - it's tough to make a decision where to place your money until you get the weather report.

In no way should you take this as disrespect because there is nobody here whose horse sense I respect more than yours.