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Keith Law's A.L. Cy Young Award rankings

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Aug 17, 2012.

  1. Hank_Scorpio

    Hank_Scorpio Active Member

    Cabrera is a legitimate Triple Crown threat right now. Top three in all three categories, and (if it hasn't changed in a couple days, leading in RBI).

    He may also be a negative at third. But it isn't a huge negative. It's not like he never played the position before this year. He also has just 10 errors this year.
    The last two years he played 3B full time, he had 23 and 17.
     
  2. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    The strikeout explanation doesn't clue me in as to why David Price isn't on the list. His FIP is lower than Jake Peavy's or CC Sabathia's (or Jered Weaver's, for that matter).
     
  3. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    To be fair, I think his lack of range is an issue, but not nearly as much of one as Law is making it out to be.
     
  4. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    Oh, and, for those of us who subscribe to ESPN Insider, here's the link this thread is about: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/8274446/mike-trout-justin-verlander-other-2012-mvp-cy-young-candidates-mlb

    And here are Law's ballots, with the NL Rookie of the Year omitted because he has a vote that counts in that (which isn't sound logic for omission, but whatever):

    AL MVP
    1. Mike Trout
    2. Robinson Cano
    3. Justin Verlander
    4. Austin Jackson
    5. Felix Hernandez

    NL MVP
    1. Andrew McCutchen
    2. David Wright
    3. Buster Posey
    4. Ryan Braun
    5. Chase Headley

    AL Cy Young
    1. Justin Verlander
    2. Felix Hernandez
    3. Jake Peavy
    4. CC Sabathia
    5. Chris Sale

    NL Cy Young
    1. R.A. Dickey
    2. Johnny Cueto
    3. Clayton Kershaw
    4. Gio Gonzalez
    5. Stephen Strasburg

    AL Rookie of the Year
    1. Mike Trout
    2. Yu Darvish
    3. Jarrod Parker
     
  5. mateen

    mateen Well-Known Member

    Someone on here can probably verify this, but I think BBWAA voters who are voting on an award are required, or at least encouraged, not to discuss their votes prior to the announcement. I'm guessing this is why he didn't give his NL ROY picks.

    If you read Law's stuff, and can sort through the snark/sarcasm/insults to stupid readers, he always supports his conclusions with reasoning that is logical if you accept his premises. I'm not saying I always find it persuasive, but I do think that he doesn't try to be controversial just for controversy's sake.
     
  6. Hank_Scorpio

    Hank_Scorpio Active Member

    I'm sure that's his thinking, flawed as it is. I may be biased, but I've also seen his play almost everyday. His range isn't nearly as bad as has been talked about when the switch was announced. He's probably shown more range than he's given credit for.
     
  7. BDC99

    BDC99 Well-Known Member

    There's no way Price is out of the top five. I'd say he is top three.
     
  8. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    Weaver got BABIPed tonite!
     
  9. Rhody31

    Rhody31 Well-Known Member

    I understand Cabrera being the third-most valuable Tiger based on whatever formula Law uses.
    His formula lacks one thing - common sense.
    How many games has Cabrera's defense cost Detroit? How many games has his offense helped?
    The only time defense should come into any MVP discussion is if it's a last-resort tiebreaker.
     
  10. ETN814

    ETN814 Member

    Law actually went pretty "new school" on this. Verlander leads the league in WAR, according to Fangraphs.com.

    Verlander 5.2 WAR
    Felix 5.0
    Sale 4.0
    Peavy 3.8
    C.C. 3.5
    Kuroda 3.2
    Weaver 3.0

    FIP
    Felix 2.86
    Verlander 2.89
    Sale 2.98
    Price 3.16
    C.C. 3.32
    Weaver 3.41
    Peavy 3.42
     
  11. ETN814

    ETN814 Member

    "He only has 10 errors." You can only get scored with an error when you have enough range to get to the ball. His UZR/150 is -8.5. That means that over the course of 150 games, playing at his current level, his defense will cost Detroit 8.5 runs.
     
  12. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    That means the UZR random number generator spit out -8.5. Seriously, that is not a good stat, and it takes at least three years worth of it before it even pretends to be useful.
     
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