K-Rod ties saves record

BP's Joe Sheehan agrees with you, for what it's worth. But he (and you) are using the same flawed logic that rankles a lot of baseball observers about the sabermetric crowd:

It assumes these numbers exist in a vacuum.

No one can say that Rivera would have 60 saves as the Angels' closer, because we have no idea what the dynamic of the team would be like. Perhaps the offense would feel much more comfortable with Mo in the back of the bullpen -- as the Yankees probably do -- and would score more runs, thereby limiting his save opportunities. Does that make him a lesser closer? Of course not.

Truth is, we have no idea what Rivera or Papelbon or Nathan or Soria would do as the Angels' closer this year. So it makes no sense to assume their numbers would be the same as K-Rod's, given the same circumstances. There's no such thing as the "same" circumstances. A butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, and all that jazz.

 

Not quite sure it's fair to compare this to Ichiro's record. The average starting batter will get about 4 plate appearances a game. Save opportunities are much more random than that.

 

Well, I hope not. As Oz and TSP said, he's not even the fourth-best closer in the league this year, let alone the fourth-best pitcher.

Maybe he finishes top 10 in CYA. Maybe. But between Cliff Lee, Halladay, the four other closers, and probably even Dice-K, that puts K-Rod eighth right off the bat.

 

Damn, you weren't lying about Eck's 1990 season:

63 G, 73 1/3 IP, 41 H, 9 R, 5 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 73 K, 48 S

Those strikeout to walk numbers are ridiculous.

 

I agree that the other closers mentioned have been more effective, but do you really think they'll finish higher in the Cy Young voting than someone who ends up with -- say -- 63 saves?

 

Speaking of, if anyone -- ANYONE, including K-Rod's mother -- votes for someone other than Cliff Lee to win the Cy Young, they should be instantly banished from press boxes. It's simply not close. Most wins, least losses (tied), lowest ERA, second-most innings, tied for third-fewest walks. And all for a shitty team. He has dominated like a 14-year-old Danny Almonte against real Little Leaguers.

 

The Cy Young doesn't always go to the pitcher with the most wins.

 

I think that's a pretty big leap of logic there. We're talking about a team that uses its closer almost exclusively in save situations for one inning at a time. It's safe to say, those situations would have been the same for Rivera, Papelbon or Soria. Considering that the Angels will likely provide Rodriguez with about 65-67 save opportunities, I'd say it's pretty fair to assume that another closer -- who doesn't affect anything but the final three outs of a game -- would likely have had a very similar number of opportunities.

You can't plug in someone like Teixeira's numbers into a Yankees lineup and assume they'd be identical. But a guy who affects only the final three outs? Pretty I feel comfortable thinking someone else would have had roughly the same number of chances at getting those final three outs.

 

Voting for Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee isn't as egregious as, say, voting for Shannon Stewart over just about anybody with a pulse (OK, slight exaggeration) in 2003. Hell, Rollins was more undeserving of the award last year than Halladay would be this year. I agree it should be Cliff Lee, but I wouldn't fault anybody for thinking Halladay deserves it.

 

What does ERA+ mean?

I just noticed that Rivera's career ERA+ is 198 and for this season it is 299, which is much higher than Thigpen's was in his record year.

 

You're nuts. The Yankees score more runs than the Angels year in and year out because they have A-Rod. Not because Mariano Rivera makes them all so confident they can smack hanging curveballs 20 feet farther than anyone else.

 

It neutralizes numbers for park effects and things like that. 100 is average. 299 is fuckamazing (so amazing, it needs its own word). Obviously, the smaller the sample size, the easier it is to bump, but 299 is off the charts.