Jonathan Papelbon: Hall of Famer?

Brian Giles: Hall of Famer?

 

Hall of Very Good? OK.

Hall of Fame? Nope.

 

Even if a crowded ballot, I'm surprised he didn't get a vote or two this past election. He's a lot closer to getting in than people would think -- I bet a lot of voters probably felt that way when they double-check the numbers. And I'm sure there were a bunch who just glossed right over his name without am original check.

Giles has a very nice peak, very nice slash line but not a lot around it. His individual numbers are the victim of team success -- had he not been more than ready when Cleveland had an already stacked lineup and in the middle of its best run in decades he would have been probably gotten around two season's worth of at bats and made his counting numbers pop a little more.

Not too shabby for a 17th-round pick

 

Holy hell. JAWS, I'm sure, has its purposes. But that is so wrong in relief pitchers.

 

No, but certainly not somebody who belongs in a Hall of Fame discussion. His prime lasted four seasons and he never finished higher than ninth in the MVP voting.

 

Like I said, I don't think it was meant to be a solely automated tool - Jaffe normally gets the results and interprets them, in his yearly articles. It's probably most "off" on RP, since most of the elite ones start as SP before moving to RP for endurance, injury or quality reasons.

 

Blue font.

Giles is more of a lock for the Hall of Almost Very Good But Not Even That.
He was a good player. With four or five very good years. Let's not get carried away here.

 

Giles was a statistical fave for plenty of years, but he lacks the resume of guys like Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, IIRC, who haven't gotten a ton of support.

 

I'd argue his prime was six seasons from 1999-2005 but he certainly lacks the overall resume. He only has 10 career seasons at 500 plate appearances and 12 years playing at least 100 games with three other years that total 118 combined games. But in 7,836 career PAs, he is a .291/.400/.502 slasher with a OPS+ of 136 and a lot more walks (1,183) than strikeouts (835).

I'd put him in the discussion, just briefly, because I think he is a second-tier borderline guy depending on how you what you consider the borderline outfield candidates of the era -- Beltran, Damon, Abreu, Edmonds, Andruw Jones, etc.

 

I shoud have said peak, not prime. His power was already dropping off in 2003. He was still very good through 2005, but not the same player he had been from '99 through '02.

 

That's an interesting list! I think Beltran has that "whiff" of being seen as a minor disappointment, because he played on some bad Mets teams and his last year or two there wasn't great. But he's really close to the JAWS average for CF, and he's had a strong rebound after the Mets. He hasn't been great with the Yankees, but he's been good enough, and he's still compiling stats. (I think it was Bill James who noted that speed-based superstar players held up better and converted it into power, and he would seemingly be another data point for that.) Eight all-star games, but his best MVP placement was fourth, and only finished in the Top 10 twice. Abreu is like a worse version of Beltran - only two AS games, best finish for MVP was 12th.

Edmonds and Jones both compiled a ton of gold gloves, and that plus being mostly good hitters might be enough to get them in. Jones kind of cratered at 30 though - It seems crazy to look at how his career ended, since at 28, 29, he looked like a sure fire HoF member. Damon hung around to compile stats, but he's the weakest candidate of the ones you listed to me.

 

And to be fair, I also left out Lofton and Bernie Williams, who have already had their time on the ballot, and the current ballot-sitter in Walker.

There is a gaggle of outfield guys that are behind the locks from the early 90s to today that it is tough to differentiate. If you had a top 10 list, I think anything past the top five is a hodgepodge based on the individual.

If you go simply by WAR, it would go Bonds, Henderson (if you include him), Griffey, Walker, Manny, Gwynn, Lofton, Beltran, Andruw Jones, Edmonds and Sheffield are tied.
Abreu, Vlad, Ichiro, Sosa and Damon are next in line.