Jonathan Papelbon: Hall of Famer?

Swindell never was a closer. He was a medicore or slightly above mediocre starter and then became a good lefty vs lefty pitcher, where he would come in to face one or two guys.

 

Yeah - I imagine that the JAWS on BR is just computer generated, so unlike when Jay Jaffe does his write-ups, it doesn't know when to exclude guys for acquiring their value mostly in SP. Hence Swindell especially and Gordon probably being way too high on a list of "relief pitchers."

 

I think that's a money making idea.

 

If you do it based on games finished, minimum 500 finishes (Papelbon is at 536) then he is tied for 16th in JAWS. If he can get to 6000, then he will move to 10th -- behind (in order), Rivera, Wilhelm, Gossage, Smith, Hoffman, Wagner, Fingers, Tekulve and K-Rod.

Relievers and stats like JAWs or Bill James monitors are so skewed it really comes down to preference. The voters like Fingers and Sutter over Franco and Quisenberry.

Wagner and Hoffman are basically identical in WAR. I bet you can guess who will be elected and who won't.

 

Papelbon's save % also is the same as Rivera's. Would think he could get to 600 finished games by end of next season.

 

K-Rod won't win the father-in-law vote.

 

Here's the list of pitchers who were primarily relievers in the Hall of Fame:

Hoyt Wilhelm
Rollie Fingers
Dennis Eckersley
Bruce Sutter
Goose Gossage

That's it. (John Smoltz could be included, but he has 213 wins and only closed for four years. Mariano Rivera will certainly join.)

 

Eckersley pitched 24 seasons, 12 as a starter, 12 as a reliever. While he had his greatest success as a reliever, he had some excellent years as a starter. I'd say his starting feats enhanced his reliever credentials enough for him.

 

Agreed. I think the better comparison for Papelbon would be only pitchers who had all of their success coming out of the bullpen.

 

Late 70s Eckersley had a few very good seasons as a starter with Boston, but when he went to the Cubs he faded a little. Unless he had some miraculous resurgence, he wasn't going to the HOF as a starter. But his total record as a starter definitely helped his case for HOF. LaRussa deserves some credit for making Eckersley one of the first one-inning closers.

 

Regardless of reliever starts, Papelbon sits 31st in WAR. If you go by relievers who have made less than 100 career starts, Papelbon's WAR is currently 18th. If you drop it to 50 or fewer, he is 14th. And if you make the cutoff 25 starts, he is 10th.

 

After the top 40 or 50 on the all-time WAR list, there are a few rankings which make you say WTF. Bobby Grich is No. 61. Ryne Sandberg is 81. Dwight Evans is 83. Kirby Puckett is 178, tied with Brian Giles.