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John Olerud: Hall of Famer?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Jan 21, 2011.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    I read every last word of it.

     
  2. SoCalScribe

    SoCalScribe Member

    I think one hidden value to a walk is that it usually takes six or seven pitches to walk, and sometimes 10 or 12.

    This is why I think eventually the stats services should figure out how to track foul balls, or at least find a way to track their impact on the game, because I believe foul balls are valuable.

    If you can work two or three long at-bats against a starting pitcher, that can get you to the bullpen a full inning earlier. No one's getting any stats prize for fouling balls off, but every pitch the starter has to throw to get an out is valuable to the offense, in my opinion. This is one of the evergreen bullet points in any "defending David Eckstein" argument.

    Does anyone remember the story from the 1920s or so -- I read it in some baseball history book -- about a player who had great bat control and was miffed about an argument with an umpire, so his next time up, he fouled at least half a dozen pitches in a row straight back into the umpire's mask?

    This is where I may be mixing memories, but I think the umpire eventually said loud enough for the catcher and pitcher to hear something along the lines of, you better swing at the next pitch, too, because it's going to be a strike even if they throw it into the stands. So I think the battery then bounced one up there and the batter finally struck out swinging.

    Which reminds me of the time Detroit's Brad Ausmus was swinging on a hit-and-run play and whoever for Milwaukee (?) bounced a curveball up there and Ausmus of all people cranked a ground-rule double off the bounce -- which, of course, was amazing to see, yet completely defeated the purpose of the hit-and-run. And I just remember all the sports highlight shows and media types getting to make about 1900 jokes about wickets and tea.

    Ah, I was just reminded of how County Stadium used to smell. I will try to stop to avoid wasting any more space, but once I get on one of these baseball memory trips I can just go and go and go. There's no other sport quite like it.
     
  3. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Also, for what it's worth, Poz did not say that Olerud is a Hall of Famer. But he said that Bill James considers Olerud a strong candidate. So maybe I mis-attributed the notion, but I didn't pull it out of thin air.
     
  4. spnited

    spnited Active Member

    Well, if Bill James says so who are we mere mortals to argue.
     
  5. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Not even close to what I said. Not even close.

    But I would have laid 1/11 odds that that post was coming.
     
  6. spnited

    spnited Active Member

    Lighten up, Dick.
    Maybe you can trade in some of those stats for a sense of humor.
     
  7. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Spnited, here is something that does irk me, and I think you and I can probably agree on this wholeheartedly. Let's say I want to know more about a pitcher. Let's say Cliff Lee. I want to know why Cliff Lee is effective. When I say that, I mean I want to know about what pitches he throws. What pitch he is likely to throw in which counts. What pitches he is missing with when he is getting hit. What his mechanics are, and where they have gone wrong at times or may in the future.

    But there is absolutely no market for that kind of information, it appears. I buy books like Baseball Prospectus and the like, but all I get is information about ground ball rates and FIPS and so forth and so on. And that stuff is extremely, extremely helpful. And quite interesting in its own right. But I feel like it's all numbers floating across a page sometimes without some source - other than sitting down and watching every game every night and coming to my own conclusions - which helps me ground them in how those numbers are actually occurring.

    I guess some people would tell me it doesn't matter. A 2.50 ERA is a 2.50 ERA is a 2.50 ERA. And that's true over time. But it is a game played by humans, and I do enjoy watching the individual games. And it would be helpful to have a base of knowledge to know how, say, Matt Cain's tendencies match up against Ryan Zimmerman's tendencies.

    That information is nowhere to be found, though. I can buy NFL Draft guides that tell me everything about a guy's upper-body strength, flexibility, strength, weaknesses, mental makeup, hands, feet, and so forth and so on. Outside of Baseball America's prospects book, which only evaluates minor-leaguers, I can't find that same information anywhere for baseball. (And, come to think of it, for football or basketball, either).

    And that frustrates me. A lot.
     
  8. MrHavercamp

    MrHavercamp Member

    It's funny that this many pages were spent discussing a potential candidacy for Olerud when much better overall first basemen didn't get a good sniff at Cooperstown either. Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly and Mark Grace were all better overall players in their primes and more consistent as well. Mattingly had more power at his peak than Olerud, while Hernandez and Grace ran the bases better. Hernandez and Mattingly were far superior defensive players and both won MVP awards, while Grace's numbers were like clockwork every season. All four ended their careers with relatively similar overall numbers. I'm not saying any of them should be in the Hall, but what's the point in trying to contort Olerud's numbers when the decision has already been made on better players?
     
  9. Herbert Anchovy

    Herbert Anchovy Active Member

    Dick Whitman--
    Fangraphs has this data out the rectum.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1636&position=P
    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=1636&position=P
    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=1636&position=P&season=2010&date=0&dh=0
     
  10. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Two reasons, I think.

    One is that he was up for a vote for the first time this past year, and roundly rejected with just four votes.

    Second of all, everyone sees Mattingly and Hernandez as guys who were at least in the Hall of Fame conversation at one point. No one thinks that about Olerud. So it's more surprising to see that Olerud was maybe better than we thought, whereas we kind of already know what we think about Mattingly and Hernandez.

    I don't know. I wish I hadn't ever started the thread, to be honest.
     
  11. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    To be fair, that is not the question asked in the title of this thread.
     
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