It's the economy, stupid

cranberry · Jun 1, 2012

I guess somebody has to benefit from a global economic collapse, and it might as well be you, but don't you feel a little untoward rooting for such catastrophe?

dooley_womack1 · Jun 1, 2012

About .1 percent of the electorate that is not party loyal will decide based on the world economy. About 49.9 percent will decide based on what their day-to-day economy is, The rest will decide based on ads and gaffes.

Bob Cook · Jun 1, 2012

dooley_womack1 said:

About .1 percent of the electorate that is not party loyal will decide based on the world economy. About 49.9 percent will decide based on what their day-to-day economy is, The rest will decide based on ads and gaffes.
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Well, yeah, we all assume that every voter is as rational as we are here.

In the end, it'll come down to who people would rather have a beer with. I would suspect that the money floodgates opened by Citizens United will only intensify that. There is going to be so much bad information out there that it's going to be hard for even the most informed voter to back-check it, and make sense of it.

Mark2010 · Jun 1, 2012

MileHigh said:

Mizzougrad96 said:

Well, if it comes up at all in September he can make himself look like a hero.

I don't think I could say that Obama is in trouble until September. If gas prices start to go up and we get another bad jobs report, things could get very interesting...
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Agree with this. We're five months from Election Day -- and there are five more jobs reports to come. Things don't heat up until after the conventions -- Labor Day. It doesn't look good today. But today isn't Election Day.
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I agree here. Let's see what happens over the next five months. But clearly a bad economy is bad for the incumbent.

Stitch · Jun 1, 2012

The Big Ragu said:

cranberry said:

Please. The Euro will survive because it's in the interests of all of Europe for it to survive. Germany will grudgingly realize that austerity by itself won't get the European economy growing again and negotiate a stimulus package. A long period of slow growth will ensue. The markets will react well.

But if you're really, really scared about a global economic collapse, sure, go ahead and buy more gold.
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I put it at less than 25 percent chance there is a Euro currency a year and a half from now. Even down to 1.23 right now, I still see plenty of room left to be shorting it. I wish I could say with certainty it is going to fail, because I'd bet you a couple of pints of Guinness -- paid for in dollars. There is still a chance there will be some Eurobond scheme that changes the nature of the currency but keeps something called a Euro around -- even if there are alternative currencies added to the mix. So I don't want that bet.

Even more insane that the way the Euro has traded, though, is the dollar index. The dollar has weakened considerably the last few years overall, as it should have, but every time there is European news, almost on cue the dollar index trades up as people flee to this mistaken haven of "safety" -- ignoring the fact that the U.S. is in massive debt and has been crapping all over its currency, too. With the dollar index sitting right now at 83 +, if I had enough patience, and I didn't have better ideas for my money, I'd go way short on that dollar index and wait. You will have to sit through some rallies, but ultimately people will wake up to the fact that the dollar has to trade on its own strength -- which it has none of. It can't keep trading too high because it is a bit less ugly than the Euro. It may take some time for that story to play out, but on the course we are on -- more than a trillion dollars of new debt each year and a Federal Reserve tripping all over itself to print more worthless money to monetize that debt -- I don't see how we don't get well below the 72/73 levels we were at when people freaked about S&P downgrading U.S. debt last year. That is another one that is going to happen. I just can't say exactly how long, because as I said, politicians and central bankers have a lot of snake oil to play with to delay the consequences of what has been building up for a long time.
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I peg the odds at 95 percent the Euro sticks around. Germany needs a weak currency to stay competitive, as do other Eurozone states with strong manufacturing bases.

Bob Cook · Dec 15, 2014

MisterCreosote said:

Bob Cook said:

In the end, it'll come down to who people would rather have a beer with.
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Romney doesn't drink! Didn't he say he's only had one beer in his entire life? I guess we have a winner:

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Well, it's possible people would want to have a beer with Romney, because they'll get two out of it knowing he won't drink his.

dixiehack · Jun 1, 2012

"Who would you rather have a beer with" only works when you can afford to buy beer.

LongTimeListener · Jun 1, 2012

Obama chose Bud Light at the Beer Summit and I will never forgive him for that.

Mizzougrad96 · Dec 15, 2014

MisterCreosote said:

Bob Cook said:

In the end, it'll come down to who people would rather have a beer with.
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Romney doesn't drink! Didn't he say he's only had one beer in his entire life? I guess we have a winner:

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He'll have a caffeine-free diet coke. Obama will be fine smoking weed.

The Big Ragu · Jun 1, 2012

cranberry said:

I guess somebody has to benefit from a global economic collapse, and it might as well be you, but don't you feel a little untoward rooting for such catastrophe?
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The last thing I feel is untoward. 1) I didn't create the mess. Nor am I blindly placing bets and rooting. I am making personal financial decisions based on conditions created by things I actively root against. If countries are going to spend recklessly and then crap all over their currencies, though -- things I find repugnant -- I certainly have an idea about how to best preserve my wealth, while the conditions they created sap wealth in general. 2) Along those lines, it is in everyone's best interest to protect their wealth. 3) I am so down on every fiat currency and the games they play with them that I still believe hard assets are the safest place to be. They can devalue the currencies to try to inflate away the debt messes they have created, but that just makes things like gold and silver more valuable.

Michael_ Gee · Jun 1, 2012

By "hard assets" other than gold, do you mean ammunition or canned goods?

Mizzougrad96 · Dec 15, 2014

MisterCreosote said:

Write the caption:

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"And then she wouldn't shut up about hockey moms and pit bulls and finally I'd had enough and I decided to concede the election."

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It's the economy, stupid

cranberry Well-Known Member

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Bob Cook Active Member

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It's the economy, stupid

cranberry Well-Known Member

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Bob Cook Active Member

Mark2010 Active Member

Stitch Active Member

Bob Cook Active Member

dixiehack Well-Known Member

LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

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