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Is Mike Trout headed for a huge fall?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Aug 5, 2014.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    I think that Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and has been for the last three seasons, since he was called up for good.

    Because of that, I keep pretty close track of how he's doing - he's one of that handful of guys I look for in the box score pretty much every morning.

    Anyway, I am beginning to be concerned about whether his performance is sustainable, due to his strikeout rate. After striking out in about 20 percent of his plate appearances his first two seasons, he has 119 strikeouts already this year - about 24 percent of the time he comes up to bat. In July, when he batted just .265, he struck out at a rate of 27 percent.

    It looks like some writers addressed this early in the season, but not too much since, from a quick Google search. Here's an example:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/forcing-a-reason-to-worry-about-mike-trout/

    It's amazing to me that he's still over .300 for the season. Very few players hit .300 and strike out that much. (Sammy Sosa, maybe?) Very few players hit .280 and strike out that much, I don't think.
     
  2. RecoveringJournalist

    RecoveringJournalist Well-Known Member

    Nowhere to go but down.
     
  3. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    Very concerning.
     
  4. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    I'm interested in what kind of player he turns out to be, aren't you?

    I'd love to see him be a 30-30 guy who hits .320 every year and competes for Gold Gloves. Basically, I'd like to see early-period Barry Bonds for a few years, as compared to a Sammy Sosa or Reggie Jackson slugger.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 1, 2015
  5. Rainman

    Rainman Active Member

    Ruth in 1920, arguably his best season, had a 17 game stretch of .190/.277/.362. It's normal to have slumps and it's normal to have luck go both good and bad. Sometimes you get a slump and bad luck at the same time.
     
  6. Steak Snabler

    Steak Snabler Well-Known Member

    People said his 2012 performance was unsustainable, then he had a better year (at least offensively) in 2013. He's slightly off this year, but still the best player in baseball by a healthy margin.

    I do think he'll stop running as he ages, just as everyone else did. That might cut into his value somewhat, but he's such a great hitter I don't think it really matters.

    And he turns 23 on Thursday.
     
  7. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    If he doesn't burn out and plays for 15-18 years, he'll be top 10.
     
  8. Huggy

    Huggy Well-Known Member

    Huge enough fall that the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers will hand him a blank check the minute his contract is up with the Angels.
     
  9. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    I won't get alarmed until Starman becomes concerned
     
  10. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    His K rate is up, but his contact rate (literally the percentage of his swings where he makes contact) is only down a tiny bit. He's hitting more fly balls and fewer ground balls, which is why he's hitting for a lot more power than he has in the past. That should more than make up for the slight uptick in K-rate.
     
  11. Huggy

    Huggy Well-Known Member

    The Mike Trout situation remains fluid, Boom.
     
  12. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Does that include foul balls?

    Rick, back-of-the-napkin, what kind of a hitter (for average) does he settle into being? I just have a hard time conceptualizing a 20 percent K guy who bats .300 season after season.
     
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