Is another civil war coming?

Wait ... I can't be a second Civil War re-enactor. Because Obama libruhls are going to take all our guuuuuuns away.

 

Agreed that class warfare and riots are more likely than any organized resistance and secession.

But, because I love to ponder these things...
Any sort of secession movement would hinge on two states — California and Texas:
• Both are probably ideologically far enough to one side (California to the left, Texas to the right) to avoid their own political infighting post-secession. Other states, like New York and Illinois, are dominated by one party or the other, but generally have an urban-rural split. Texas and California (moreso California) both seem to be on one page, politically. Their leaders might also be batshit crazy enough to try it if the opposing party happens to be in power on the federal level.
• Both are border states, which is key. Kansas couldn't secede because it'd just be cut off from the rest of the world. Texas and California have access to water and a lax international border with Mexico. A place like Michigan would be too dependent on Canada, New Mexico or Arizona too dependent on Mexico. Texas and California are in just the right spot geographically to have an advantage.
• Both have enough natural resources to fend for themselves, at least for a time. They would also have some economic leverage on the federal government. Cutting off access to some of California's technology, or Texas' oil, not to mention the tax money that comes from those states, would have an impact on the rest of the U.S.
• Finally — and this might be the one thing that would trigger an actual Civil War — both states could have enough wealth and influence to convince their neighbors to join them. If Texas secedes alone, it can be blockaded and choked off. If Louisiana and Mississippi went along with Texas, they'd control most of the oil and access in the Gulf of Mexico, plus a large chunk of the Mississippi River. That would seriously hurt the U.S. economically and would certainly lead to another Civil War.
If California, Oregon and Washington broke away, you're looking at the entire West Coast, all its resources and access to the Pacific and beyond. In a hostile situation, two-thirds of the U.S. would essentially be cut off from the world. The federal government surely wouldn't let that slide. Again, it would certainly lead to a second Civil War. Las Vegas and Phoenix cannot be the western frontier.

So, unless Texas or California gets it in their head to break away, I just don't see how it's feasible. Any other state is either too weak economically or can be isolated geographically. Only those two have every check mark in the right columns to have any chance at success ("success" being a relative term; this would be a complete disaster for everyone involved).

 

That would make a lot of people mad.

 

Well, Marvel already did Civil War a few years ago, and I can't see them revisiting it again with everything else they have planned, especially with Ultron War coming up here pretty quick. Besides, with the success of the movies and how things are developing in the Avengers comics, I can't see them putting a rift down the superhero community other than the mutant issues they have now with Cyclops leading a rogue group of X-Men and Wolverine leading mutants that are trying to be more mainstream and cooperate with the Avengers. So, maybe a mutant civil war, but not a full-blown, Marvel-wide crossover like the last one.

Wait, not that Civil War?

 

So if there was a school yard pick with Texas and California as captains of opposing sides, which are the last two states picked?

 

You must work for CNHI.

 

I have believed since the mid 1990s that there would be a civil war in America. Several reasons. In recent years, that belief has sort of modified.

I DO believe certain states --- led by Texas with as many as 18 others possibly following --- would leave if things continue on the current pattern. Whether the remaining "United States" would try to hold them or welcome their departure is a big question, though. Just as many resent the current actions of the federal government, many consider that certain factions within the "Confederacy" are holding back the union and, thus, would almost be relieved to see them depart. In such case, an actual war could be avoided and perhaps even trade negotiations could be done to minimize the economic pain for both sides. (We could even break up the NCAA, but allow for cross-association contests, like European soccer leagues.)

I truly believe the cultural and philosophical differences between, say, New York and Texas, have become so great that a split may be welcomed by all parties involved. Each union would be free to make its own laws that more closely resemble the will of the citizenry, without interference from the other side.

It will be interesting to see what issue(s) become the tipping point. It might be guns, immigration, same-sex marriage or economic issues such as taxes.... or a combination of the above.

It will also be interesting to see how a new geo-political map fits, whether western states join the more politically conservative southern states in the "Confederacy" or remain as part of the union. And that would affect liberal-leaning west coast states, who might be cut off geographically from their union brethren in the midwest and east coast.

A possible breakdown.....

CONFEDERACY: Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky.

Possible defectors (likely as a block): Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Idaho, Montana.

On the fence: Colorado.

Likely to remain with union: California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada.

The other states in the east and midwest would remain part of the United States.

 

I'd have to think Ill-Annoy is one of them. Nobody wants to pick up all that debt and poor credit rating.

 

I have believed since the mid 1990s that there would be a civil war in America. Several reasons. In recent years, that belief has sort of modified.

I DO believe certain states --- led by Texas with as many as 18 others possibly following --- would leave if things continue on the current pattern. Whether the remaining "United States" would try to hold them or welcome their departure is a big question, though. Just as many resent the current actions of the federal government, many consider that certain factions within the "Confederacy" are holding back the union and, thus, would almost be relieved to see them depart. In such case, an actual war could be avoided and perhaps even trade negotiations could be done to minimize the economic pain for both sides. (We could even break up the NCAA, but allow for cross-association contests, like European soccer leagues.)

I truly believe the cultural and philosophical differences between, say, New York and Texas, have become so great that a split may be welcomed by all parties involved. Each union would be free to make its own laws that more closely resemble the will of the citizenry, without interference from the other side.

It will be interesting to see what issue(s) become the tipping point. It might be guns, immigration, same-sex marriage or economic issues such as taxes.... or a combination of the above.

It will also be interesting to see how a new geo-political map fits, whether western states join the more politically conservative southern states in the "Confederacy" or remain as part of the union. And that would affect liberal-leaning west coast states, who might be cut off geographically from their union brethren in the midwest and east coast.

A possible breakdown.....

CONFEDERACY: Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky.

Possible defectors (likely as a block): Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Idaho, Montana.

On the fence: Colorado.

Likely to remain with union: California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada.

The other states in the east and midwest would remain part of the United States.

 

Everyone, or almost everyone, looks good in most shades of gray. I personally think blue is not nearly as universally flattering. I own very little dark blue clothing and have never bought a navy blazer or suit. Light and even medium blues are much more useful and versatile.

 

By the way, the idea that New Mexico, a state that is majority Hispanic, would join a nouveau confederacy is just asinine. Florida, similary, has so many Yankee transplants that it would never happen. They can't even vote Republican, much less secede. The same would likely hold true for VA, NC. I could go on and on but I'll stop at the most obvious mistakes.

By the way, did you know SJ spell-check doesn't know nouveau is a word?