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Iowa primary predictions

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Bristol Insider, Dec 11, 2007.

  1. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    There is nothing sicker than Fox News and its open shilling for Rudy.

    And it's going to cost them. Rudy don't play in the heartland.
     
  2. Armchair_QB

    Armchair_QB Well-Known Member

    I predict the guy who owns 801 Steak and Chop will be extremely pissed the caucuses were moved up a month.
     
  3. D-3 Fan

    D-3 Fan Well-Known Member

    I second that sentiment, Armchair.

    The general managers of the Embassy Suites, Hotel Ft. Des Moines, The Savory, Mariott, the WDM Sheraton, the downtown Holiday Inn, and my friend who runs the Suites of 800 Grand are pissed off as well. Not to mention the Court Avenue district. :'(

    Instead of raking in money on New Years and the caucuses, they have to either squeeze them together or cancel NYE parties, thanks to the fucking dolts in Michigan, Florida, and the others who feel the need to force IA and NH to move it up to the 3rd. All of this just ruined my birthday on New Years Day. :mad:
     
  4. Gold

    Gold Active Member

    I would predict Obama and Huckabee in Iowa.

    However, Hillary is the only Democrat who can withstand not winning in Iowa and New Hampshire because she has a national organization and enough money to do well in the flood of primaries which follow immediately. If Hillary were to lose both states, she might slip somewhat in the polls but would you want to bet against her in the California primary, which is Feb. 5 and has a heckuva lot more delegates and votes.

    I think Romney can afford to lose Iowa but he would have to beat Rudy Giuliani in New Hampshire. Barring a Howard Dean-like blowup, Romney has enough money to keep a campaign going.

    Expecting a Hillary loss to trigger a Howard Dean moment is completely wrong. Hillary is the most disciplined candidate, and that is why she will be successful. It also is the reason you can get a feeling this woman would take a poll to see whether it would be better to eat cherry pie or apple pie.

    I think Romney is the most disciplined of the GOP candidates. He may well lose some Republican primary battles, but I think he will win the war for the nomination. Giuliani is very likely to lose his temper and have some youtube classic moments. I think the Republicans who aren't from the extreme religious fringe will realize that he will be the best candidate, and those evangelical voters are going to finally, finally realize that they have been doing the dirty grunt work for the big-money interests who really run the GOP.
     
  5. bostonbred

    bostonbred Guest

    Obama and Huckabee are my predictions for Iowa. Hillary and Romney are my predictions for New Hampshire.
     
  6. Mizzougrad96

    Mizzougrad96 Active Member

    As I said on another thread, I'll never be able to understand why the Evangelical Christians in Iowa, the ultra-conservatives in New Hampshire and the racist rednecks in South Carolina get to play such a huge role in who becomes the president.

    Obviously I'm stereotyping, but Iowa was where Pat Robertson had such a great showing a few elections back. New Hampshire was where Pat Buchanan almost beat an incumbent president in 1992 and South Carolina was where McCain's 2000 run ended because they thought he had a black child...
     
  7. TrooperBari

    TrooperBari Well-Known Member

    My prediction?

    Pain.[/-1 obvious]
     
  8. Philosopher

    Philosopher Member

    Edwards will win on the Democratic side. I think Obama will deflate there. His one-on-one skills aren't strong, and polls overstate the level of his support. Only a small fraction of voters actually show up to the caucus, and Edwards will have those.

    I suppose Huckabee will win on the Republican side, but I expect Romney to do well. If he doesn't win or at least come close, he should drop out, after all the money he's spent there.
     
  9. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    OK, hey, it's your opinion, but I'm left puzzled by the following:

    How so and what of it?

    Evidence?

    True to the first part and source, please, to the second. You realize, of course, that most polls of likely caucusgoers show Edwards still in third. So I'm sure that you must know something the rest of the world doesn't.
     
  10. D-3 Fan

    D-3 Fan Well-Known Member

    Well, they're not exactly evangelical Christians, Mizzou, it's western Iowa, where they have stuck to their guns when it comes to their conservative philosophies. These folks go to church every Sunday, farm on the same land as their ancestors have, and think in the same way as their neighbors do. The evangelical wing usually lurks in the cities or the burbs out here, with their gigantic churches and non-denominational affiliations.

    Robertson may have had a good showing, but regular Iowa Republicans knew better than to commit delegates to a nutjob. The regular ones lean moderate but isn't afraid to take someone who fits at least 75% of their views.

    South Cackalacky is just loony. They don't know the Antebellum period ended nearly 140 years ago.
     
  11. STLIrish

    STLIrish Active Member

    And the "ultra-conservatives" in New Hampshire aren't nearly as conservative as the regular old conservatives in the South.
    While the front-loaded primary system is kind of screwy, I'm not sure we can say that's because New Hampshire almost went for Buchanan in '92 or Iowa for Robertson. Ultimately, those guys didn't win. And against the Bush machine, McCain was probably a longshot, too.
     
  12. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    I attended a Barack Obama rally at Universal Amphitheater in LA on Monday...5,000 screaming Obama voters were there. In LA. In December. At 7 p.m. On Time.

    People who don't live here have no idea how odd all of that is!

    He gave a fascinating speech, full of inspiration, self-deprecating humor and with just enough specifics. And I'm willing to bet 4,000 of the 5,000 people there had never been to a political event in their life.

    Hillary has no idea how badly she's going to lose. My sources in the SEIU in Chicago say they have internal polls which show Barack 7 points up in Iowa and 2 up in New Hampshire. And they tell me that as soon as he wins Iowa, the SEIU will openly endorse him (instead of the faux Edwards endorsement they have going on now). And that endorsement will put him over the top in NH and especially the next week in Nevada, which is proving to be a very important primary state.

    Barack will be the Democratic nominee.

    And I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him be President, too.
     
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