If all four go undefeated...

I'd be shocked if that stays within three touchdowns. Stanford's defense can do a lot of things, but it cannot run with those guys.

 

Toughest games left for the unbeatens (not based on the likelihood of a loss):

1. Alabama vs. SEC East champion (likely Georgia): That Bulldogs defense is ferocious and won't have played a tough opponent in a month.
2. Oregon at Oregon State: The Beavers are being dismissed unfairly. The Civil War is a top-tier rivalry, and Oregon State has a lot to play for.
3. Notre Dame at Southern California: The Trojans have a horrible line that the Fighting Irish should shred, but USC's playmakers are elite.
4. Alabama vs. Texas A&M: The Aggies have two losses by eight combined points to top-eight teams and match up well against Alabama.
5. Oregon vs. Stanford: The Cardinal has a powerful defensive line, but can the offense keep pace?
6. Oregon vs. Pac-12 South champion (likely UCLA or USC): I think the Bruins are better than the Trojans, but the game will be in Eugene.
7. Kansas State vs. Texas: The Longhorns should test whether the Wildcats have the talked-about speed to match up with Oregon or Alabama.
8. Kansas State at TCU: The Horned Frogs have been up and down all season, but they can win this game.

Those are the eight potential losses left on these teams' schedules. I think Oregon, with three of the eight spots and the hardest road game left, is most at risk.

 

I think last week the odds of all four winning out computed to about 2 percent. This week, I heard they're up to 7 percent.

I can't imagine ND winning out. I can't imagine Oregon or K-State losing. Alabama losing I deem possible, though that's not a knock on the quality of the team.

The final BCS standings could be insanely close and could hinge on a million things, such as an undefeated ND. A close game by either Oregon or K-State could be as bad as a loss, assuming all four go undefeated. Notre Dame probably needs two full-on losses in front of it to make the title game. I can't imagine any other way voters move them up.

 

Vers, I can't argue much about your list, but every time Notre Dame takes the field is a near- loss.

 

One thing to remember: Oregon's strength of schedule will improve in the next month. Alabama's and Kansas State's will stay the same. Notre Dame's will decline, particularly if UCLA beats Southern Cal.

 

Saturday night made me a believer. Alabama's the best until somebody beats them. Of the others, Oregon would annihilate Notre Dame, and in all honesty, I just haven't seen Kansas State enough to comment. That's not to say that's how the BCS would sort out. I agree with those who say this possibility of four unbeatens is beyond unlikely.

 

Oregon gets Cal this week. K-State gets TCU. Advantage, K-State. (27 vs. 61 in Sagrin)

Texas could also be a top 15 team, and would improve K-State's SOS, negating any bump from the Pac 12 title game.

K-State will lose ground when Oregon plays Oregon St. and Stanford.

 

Who cares about what the numbers say next week? In the long run, my point stands.

 

Why would a game in which Alabama was outplayed for 59 minutes but got bailed out by the gods (and prevent defense dumbassery) in the final seconds be the one that convinces you Alabama's the best? That take doesn't make much sense to me. If Les Miles had simply kept the failed attempts at Les Miles trickery in his pocket and played Bama straight up, then LSU wins that game.

If anything, I had the complete opposite take. I'd been convinced all year that Bama was plainly the best, but seeing how inept they looked for all but the final two minutes of the second half of that game has caused me to now have a few doubts.

 

Stoney, I look at it the opposite way. Alabama blew chunks for the entire second half, especially its QB. Then when it was their last shot, they did the job. To me, that's an identification mark of a champion. They fight when they're hurt by punches.

 

Then you must really love Notre Dame.

 

I'm comfortable saying that Alabama is probably the best team in the country, and if they play their best game then they won't lose to anybody. But LSU proved that they are not infallible and are, in fact, beatable if you have some talent and don't beat yourself.

I think any of the other three unbeaten schools could beat them, and so could A&M and so could Georgia. That doesn't mean they will, just that it's not even close to a slam dunk that Alabama wins it all. I wasn't quite as confident prior to the LSU game.