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Hurricanes and global warming

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Cosmo, Oct 24, 2006.

  1. Flying Headbutt

    Flying Headbutt Moderator Staff Member

    First off, global warming is a fact. NASA's EOS system of satellites (which my dad helped build) pretty much confirms it all.

    However that's independent from my next statement.

    I interviewed a hurricane expert from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center last spring. He told me to ask him about global warming. So I did, and he said it had NOTHING to do with last year's hurricanes. It simply didn't. And it wasn't going to have an effect on this year's hurricanes.

    A number of complex weather patterns fell into place in just the right way last year to provoke all the havoc and destruction we saw. This year, different patterns emerged.

    And just because I feel like I have to say it. If the world is millions of years old, and really anyone with even half a nut for a brain knows it is, how can you confidently say that last year's hurricanes were the worst ever, when we only have about 150 (at the most) years of data? Worse in destruction of infrastructure and lives and such, yes. But who is to say that it hasn't been repeated in centuries gone by, just with no one to accurately record the information that we have today, and no where near the infrastructure built back then either?
  2. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    But what's the temperature tomorrow? What's the seven-day? Get to the forecast already!

    /my mother-in-law watching Tom Skilling on WGN
  3. Mystery_Meat

    Mystery_Meat Guest

    And really, we don't have 150 years of GOOD data. People make a big deal about Wilma setting the Atlantic basin record for barometric pressure, but we weren't flying into storms regularly until the 1950s, and even when we had the basics of forecast technology like radar and sats, they were well behind what we have now. So the 882mb that Wilma posted might have been bettered by some fish storm in the 1930's that didn't show up on the proverbial radar (since the literal one hadn't been invented). There's probably a bunch of storms that developed that never got identified because they didn't affect land or shipping lanes.

    And Tom Skilling's still on WGN? He's been around for-freaking-ever.
  4. Columbo

    Columbo Active Member

    Four hurricanes - all Cat 1 and all in Florida - have hit the U.S. in November since 1900.
  5. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    And he'll probably still be there after his brother gets out of prison.
  6. Buck

    Buck Well-Known Member

    Last season was a bad hurricane year for the U.S., and people wanted to to tie it to global warming.
    This year was a mild hurricane year for the U.S., and people want to use it as evidence that the global warming threat is being overblown.
    There's no way to make a direct connection from such a narrow data field, which is the problem with the entire global warming debate.
  7. OTD

    OTD Well-Known Member

  8. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    I agree whole-heartedly, but in using that same logic, couldn't the same be said about global warming? Who's to say it wasn't warmer "in centuries gone by, just with no one to accurately record the information we have today"?

    I find your words to be quite legitimate.
  9. slappy4428

    slappy4428 Active Member

    Don't be rippin Tom Skilling....I know people who live hundreds of miles away from Chicago who will watch WGN just to see Skilling...

    And OTD? Outstanding work!!
  10. Buck

    Buck Well-Known Member

    We have some information about past weather trends through secondary sources: soil evidence, tree rings, etc.
    But it's not enough to draw any concrete conclusions about the current warming trend.
  11. JackS

    JackS Member

    I'm sure global warming is a fact, but I'm not completely sold on the cause (fossil fuel burning certainly isn't helping, but there is some data that makes it questionable whether or not that is actually the cause) nor the effect on hurricanes.

    Reading Elizabeth Kolbert right now. Pretty good book.
  12. leo1

    leo1 Active Member

    the miami herald did a great piece earlier this year on how despite having vastly improved technology the national hurricane center is woefully inadequate in its level of prediction and forecasting. throw a few hundred more million dollars and it could predict with much more accuracy what storms will do. in some ways they're still using the same technology as a half-century ago when they started flying into storms.
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