Hurricane Matthew

Decision on Georgia-South Carolina Thursday.

 

Wouldn't be a bad idea to fill up a couple of gas cans this week. One of the forecast models calls for this thing to do a loop-de-loop and circle back through the Keys and then likely into the Gulf.

 

My older brother and two of his three children live near Charleston, S.C, outside the mandatory evacuation zone but close enough that they are still being told it would be a good idea to go. My nephews are headed to stay with their sister over an hour farther inland. but my brother is staying. He's a former volunteer fireman and EMT, so they asked him to stay at the fire house and help out. I get that he is trained for this and the building is designed to take a beating, but I'd still feel a heck of a lot better if he was farther inland, too.

 

Check out an outdoors store for a LifeStraw. They're like $20. But you can filter rainwater or even puddles into potable water with one.

I keep one in my go bag and carry a second one on my forays into the backcountry.

 

Many thanks for all the best wishes at this scary and stressful time for those of us in Florida.

As you might imagine, today brought a lot of last-minute shoppers at Publix (bottled water was sold out when I made a run this morning) and long lines at gas stations -- at those that hadn't run out. Also noticed some price-gouging with a lot of gas prices up at least 10 cents since yesterday.

The latest projection brings Matthew about 65-75 miles offshore from where I live and we won't be in the northeast quadrant, so I'm hoping for the best. Definitely too close for comfort, though, and the track could shift, as Florida southwest coasters who went through Hurricane Charley know all too well. We had storm-resistant impact windows installed about two weeks ago -- haven't made many good investments in my life, but it's looking as if that one was timely.

The potential loop-de-loop for Matthew reminds me of the 2004-05 hurricane seasons, when crazy stuff was happening almost every week.

 

I woke up to great news. Jim Cantore is reporting from Melbourne, 100 miles away from my house.

Track predictions haven't changed significantly. It still looks like I will only get tropical storm winds with a 50% or so chance of Cat 1 wind speeds.

Jim, however, not content to let me breathe a sigh of relief, reminds us regularly they don't really know where the track will end up going and those of us south of him should be scared.

 

Just let our three dogs outside. Stiff breeze, occasional showers at the moment.

Wife just got back from another last-minute shopping trip (probably the fourth one we've made over the past two days). Publix opened at 7 a.m., just closed at 10. The folks at the 7-Eleven about a mile away say they will stay open as long as power is on. Based on the current storm track, I'd put the odds of an outage at 50-50 in my area.

The expectation for where I live is for consistent tropical storm-force winds starting later this afternoon and running through early morning if the forecast track holds. The NHC takes a lot of crap when its forecasts are off, but this one has been spot-on to this point -- although I'd love to see this one pass even 25 or 30 miles farther east, which would make a difference in the wind speed on the coast.

I'll probably check in with periodic reports today and tonight for as long as I have an internet connection. Hoping and praying for the best for those who live where conditions are expected to be the worst -- northern Palm Beach County, Treasure Coast, Space Coast and points further north. Stating the obvious, but a Category 4-5 storm running up Florida's east coast is a nightmare scenario I had hoped never to see in my lifetime.

 

I have a very bright friend who teaches weather science at UGA. He's convinced that it is going to hit around Cape Canaveral, run up the coast, then loop back around and hit near there again. Stay safe, you know the drill. I've weathered many hurricanes over the years, and generally unless you get flooded or your roof goes you can ride it out safely. Best of luck, all.

 

He's right, and if you've been down there any length of time you've seen those storms make a hard 9o degree turn, or a 180, or pause in place and cross to the gulf and strengthen again there. Damn things might do anything. All you can do is prepare and ride it out.

What worries me is what happens when a state goes ten or fifteen years without a really big storm. You always get profiteering developers who figure out a way to build and sell houses on the flood plain, along with towns who look at the tax income and let them. Some poor Yankee comes down and buys that scenic lot, clueless as hell, and then gets washed away. I've seen luxe beach houses in Galveston that were maybe as much as 18 to 24 inches above the water line. I remember driving through there after hurricanes and the water line on the beach houses on stilts would be six to eight feet up. You'd drive the main road and the barbed wire fences beside the road would have debris stuck in all four wires from the tidal surge. Makes me wonder what someone smart enough to make enough money to afford to to buy one of those houses is thinking when he does.

 

RIP Milton and Annette:

 

Morons. Maybe they should try surfing.

I used to live in Houston. The Flagship Hotel on Galveston Island sits on pilings out over the gulf. I had friends who would rent a room on the fifth or sixth floor on the side facing the gulf and hold hurricane parties. I don't doubt that the view is spectacular, but there is no way in sixteen hells that I would have ever gone to one.

People can be such dumbasses.

 

Much to my considerable relief, my Mom in Ponte Vedra Beach is evacuating right around now. My cousin and her husband live in the same golf course community, so they are taking her with them to Tallahassee, where my cousin in law reserved rooms a few days ago.