Huntsman Out

Contested GOP frontrunner the December before: In.

Contested Dem frontrunner the December before: Out.

Don't call me Nostradamus, I knew the trend even back then.
http://www.sportsjournalists.com/forum/threads/57030/

 

Maggie Thatcher was 54 when she was elected British PM and was 66 when forced out in 1991 (I was actually in country when it happened).

Hillary would be at the youngest 68 if she runs in 2016.

 

Well said.

 

I just don't see Huntsman having a shot four years from now if Romney doesn't win. If anything, his campaign allowed Romney to appear more conservative. I just don't see the GOP ever nominating someone to the left of Romney. If Romney loses, we'll hear that you need a "real" conservative to win, just like you heard four years ago. And in '92, in '76, in '60...
Which is the biggest surprise of this campaign, considering the dynamics, that an effective conservative candidate never emerged.

 

Huntsman is in no way to the left of Romney. He's viewed as a moderate on the right because he doesn't have an attack-dog personality and he's expressed a belief in science over religious dogma, but he's markedly to the right of the Mittster.

 

Among people who have actually done well in a presidential election/primaries since 1980, who would qualify as a "real conservative"

I don't think either Bush was. Bush I definitely wasn't. I don't think too many people thought W. was either, although maybe having Cheney there qualifies.

The "real conservatives" are getting their asses kicked this year, and I'm pretty happy about that.

 

For a "real conservative" to be elected, you would need to find one who had Reagan's charisma and likability (such a person doesn't exist...) or have the economy go so far into the shitter that people would want someone who is the polar opposite of the current guy. To be honest, I don't even think that would be enough...

 

That's the thing. So many of them saw the opportunity and jumped in, that the conservative vote was diluted. Leaving an opening for the 35% moderate first and the 25% teabagger second.

 

Is Ron Paul considered a tea party guy? I know his kid is... Bachmann was always the one who I associated with the tea party.

 

Well, you also need a "true conservative" who has the stature and resume necessary to be elected President. In other words, you need a "true conservative" who's been a successful Governor or Senator.

That person is unlikely to come from a Blue State or a swing state, since they'd have to make too many compromises to get elected. And, the "true conservatives" from Red States are often so conservative, that it makes them too outside the mainstream for a national campaign.

So, there just aren't going to be a lot of potential candidates to credibly fill this slot.

Maybe Rubi can do it. I'm not sure how many others even have a chance to qualify.

 

Ron Paul was tea party before tea party was cool. Bachmann did a good job jumping out in front of the parade. Perry, well, he tried.

 

Didn't he leave New Hampshire saying the dream was still alive? He never had a real chance to begin with...