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How do you spell stagflation?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by The Big Ragu, Jun 6, 2008.

  1. Stoney

    Stoney Well-Known Member

    The Dems did not assume control of Congress until January, 2007. The "downturn in the economy" began well before that. As did the dickbrained policies that caused it.
     
  2. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    Six years of a stagnant stock market.

    Gasoline prices that had more than doubled from 2001 to 2006.

    Miniscule growth in low-paying jobs.

    Average household income (adjusted for inflation) LOWER by about $3,000 from 2001 to 2006.

    Care to rethink that post? Or will a simple "delete" suffice?
     
  3. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Oh lord no, Bird. Barney Frank is a moron. First off, the money we have spent since 9/11 is money we don't have. Spending more money we don't have isn't a solution. It will just exacerbate the misery by making prices rise even more. If you try to fuel the economy, you are pouring gas on the inflation problem.

    What Frank is suggesting is akin to Paul Volcker's supply shock, which you know made things worse. It's just trying to control the economy instead of controlling inflation, the way Volcker was. The problem is, when you try to control one, you make the other worse. This is the inherent dilemma with stagflation.

    You can't manage the economy, period. Monetary policy has short-term effects. Even Keynsians agree with this. The economy is like a giant battleship. You can maybe steer it a little (although I will argue to the death that you do it by creating problems as bad, or worse, as the ones you are trying to fix). But trying to slam on the brakes and reverse course makes it capsize.

    These are smart men, Ben Bernanke included, but all the smarts in the world can't give them the power to do the impossible.

    Bernanke modeled something when he was at the Brookings Institute that correlated every major U.S. recession since Nixon with a combo of oil price increases and the Fed raising the Fed funds rate. It wasn't genius. It just provided more proof of something most people could see.

    It is exactly what happened again while he was Fed chairman. They were raising rates for a few years to try to manage the economy and oil prices started to rise precipitously in 2007. The economy slowed, helped along in part by the housing bust, and we are now starting to get hit with the dual whammy of a recession and inflation.

    Bernanke hasn't performed very well so far (but no Fed chairman ever really does, because it's their job to screw around with things they can't control). Based on the work he had done at Brookings, for some godforsaken reason he actually thinks that by lowering rates, as he has done, he could stave off the recession. What he has likely done, though, is spurred on more demand, which is probably one of the more significant factors that is driving oil prices to an all-time high.

    It's the stupid short-term fixes that create much worse long-term problems. So now an inevitable recession is probably going to be a very severe recession. And trying to heat up an anchored economy, as he has done, just makes the inflation worse, too. Is it worth a half year of slight relief that creates two years of worse misery?

    The best way out is to do nothing. Barney Frank--and just about every politician--won't do that. It's their job to pretend they can dribble a football. And neither will the Fed chairman, because he'll get hammered for sitting tight, even though he knows it's the right thing to do.
     
  4. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    The economy does not roar as it did from 2003-'07 on "$7/hr" jobs. You know it, I know it, the American people know it.

    But you keep reading from the DNC talking points.
     
  5. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    Volcker's idea was that all the diddling around at the edges didn't solve the stagflation problem. So drastic action was necessary if the country was to ever get out of its economic malaise. And, oh yeah, it KILLED the housing market, then, too. Imagine a home loan with a 30-year fixed rate as high as your highest credit card. That's how the 3-year, and 5-year variables came into popularity. I remember in my brief time living in Fort Wayne, Ind., that the subdivisions in our area were full of streets that had no houses, or streets that had names but were only intersections. (Fortunately, the company my dad worked for bought our house whenever it made us move.)

    I'm not saying Volckermania should return. I don't know enough about economics to figure that out. But I've seen others make the argument that's it better, collectively, to take our medicine now and have this disappear in a few years, rather than let it drip, drip, drip for a decade.
     
  6. Only if he gets credit for the growth from 2002 to 2007.
     
  7. Stoney

    Stoney Well-Known Member

    But isn't that the belief that was largely discredited in the 1930s? At least that's the way I remember my history books telling it:

    That the Hoover administration believed the way out of the Depression was to avoid govt interference and allow the free market and Adam Smith's invisible hand to guide us out. Things only got worse and worse.

    Then FDR's Keynesian-inspired New Deal went the opposite way and tried to steer us out with massive govt spending, stimulus programs, and tinkering with just about everything. Things gradually got better.
     
  8. Full employment in economic terms is usually defined as between 4-6.5% - yet Chicken Little's on the board seem to think 5.5% spells doom.

    All I have to say is be careful what bars you set because the next President or any other for the foreseeable future will have trouble being deemed a success if you try to paint the W years as an economic wasteland. Thanks to the Internet people can't call 5.5% doom anymore yet glory about a Democratic reaching 5.5% levels and being labeled a savior.

    Just for fun compare the first years of the Bush 43 years against the first term of Bill Clinton 42

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  9. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    The stock market was over 14,000 and hardly stagnant until the credit problem, which had nothing to do with any Bush or GOP policies. In fact, the credit problem came about from lefties whining that less-qualified people had more trouble getting loans -- which was as it should have been.

    As for gas prices, your 2006 figure relies heavily on the spike caused by Katrina. Gas was back down to the low 2-dollar range before the latest run-up, which occurred again, when? After the Dems took over control of congress. Before the latest run-up, gas was nowhere near double what it was in 2001. And besides that, do you really want to blame Bush for the increased demand in China and India? That would be telling.

    No, I don't care to rethink my post. Things have gotten much worse since Pelosi and Reid took over. To deny it is simply to lie.
     
  10. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    The New Deal helped, but the economy never truly recovered until WWII soaked up a lot of the labor pool.
     
  11. 2muchcoffeeman

    2muchcoffeeman Well-Known Member

    2001: Bush takes office with an $86 billion budget surplus thanks to sound economic management by the previous administration.

    2008: The surplus was wasted. Bush's budgets have run up a $527.9 billion budget deficit, 4 percent of the United States' annual gross domestic product.

    Under the Bush-Cheney administration, American real gross domestic product has grown at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent. In the 51 years prior to that, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent.

    Under the Bush-Cheney administration, personal income has grown at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent. In the 51 years prior to that, personal income grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent.

    Under the Bush-Cheney administration, payroll jobs have grown at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent. In the 51 years prior to that, payroll jobs grew at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent.
     
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Your history book was wrong. Stoney. The Depression lasted from 1929 until about 1940. More than a decade of misery. Things got "worse and worse," as you put it, through two rounds of FDR's New Deal. Where was the magic exactly?

    FDR was great at boosting his popularity. And it's why your history book remembers him fondly. He still didn't do anything but create a bunch of long-term problems that created very little relief from the inevitable, which the country had to deal with anyhow.

    WWII is what dragged us out. Most of what FDR did created unanticipated long-term problems, some of which we are still paying for.

    I'm not going to touch it beyond that, though.

    Either way, you aren't comparing apples to apples. The great depression was a severe recession, not a recession combined with runaway inflation. It's a much different prospect, trying to heat up an economy than trying to heat up an economy at the same time inflation is running rampant. If anyone tries New Deal type measures right now, it is a formula for absolute disaster--the New Deal in today's environment might actually make people start having to shop for groceries with a wheel-barrel full of gold bullion. It would blow up the dollar and create a global crisis.

    Thankfully, even Barney Frank understands that much about history and isn't THAT stupid.
     
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