How come national sportswriting is now all predictions and comparisons?

And you don't think that the original idea to build housing communities around golf course was in any way related to the golf boom that started in 1997?

 

The real estate bubble, at least in my neck of the woods, was a big contributor to a rash of golf course closures. The land was simply more valuable if subdivided and sold off into single-family lots.

 

I'm not denying at all that the housing crash was the endgame here for a shit ton of golf courses. That's absolutely true.

I'm suggesting that the beginning, the over-building of communities that were anchored to a luxury golf course was very much inspired by the golf boom, and the golf boom was very much tied to Tiger Woods. Developers bet on the idea that people's growing interest in golf would make them more interested in living/retiring on a golf course, even if it meant taking out a mortgage they could not afford long-term. If Tiger Woods were still winning two majors a year, I don't think those people would still be super into golf. I think their interest would have faded like it does with any new obsession.

There are something like 15,000 golf courses in the US, both public and private.

According to numbers in this OC Register piece, between 1990 and 2005, there were 3,300 courses added.

That's way too many. The game can't sustain that many, especially not in an era where husbands are (understandably) expected to be involved dads and can't just tell the family they're going to play golf for five hours on Saturday or Sunday morning.

What we're seeing in golf is a five-pronged correction, IMO.

1. The game overbuilt and overreached based on inflated numbers (Tiger affect)
2. The housing collapse, which will take 20 years to recover from
3. Short attention spans, tied closely to smart phones and the internet
4. Changes in parenting expectations (primarily for fathers)
5. Not as much disposable income to spent $50 to $100 on four hours of leisure

Golf will ultimately be OK, I think. It's not going to die. But it's going to return to the level it was in the early 1990s. You don't ever want your sport going backward, but like hockey, you're also better off serving the people who are really into it than you are trying to chase people who had a casual interest and a brief one.

 

From personal experience, this is huge. Someone should write about it. Has someone? Have you?

Having golf suddenly removed from my life, without warning, has been one of the most difficult - no shit here - adjustments to having multiple children. My wife knows it's killing me, too.