Has the first pick in the NFL fantasy football draft ever been so perilous?

So, for the first time ever, I have the first pick in the draft.

Seems like it would be Tomlinson slightly over Peterson, but......

Tomlinson had a knee injury at the end of last year that he didn't have surgery on, and he hasn't played in preseason....

Peterson was a shell of himself after his knee got hurt...

POV?

 

I'd just take Dan Carpenter.

(I actually took him in a draft tonight...not first)

Can you trade the pick? Might not be a horrible idea. Get lower in the first round when the pickin's a little clearer. Otherwise, I'd go with LT at the wire, presuming it's not a keeper league.

 

Yep, and below them is just as bad.

Brady and Manning may or may not be healthy, Westbrook is old and so is Larry Johnson.

Moss likely won't have the year he did last season, I'm not sold on Marion Barber or Joseph Addai, etc., etc.

Lots of potential for calamity this year.

 

I had a draft last night with a bunch of buddies, and I had the two pick.

I took Peterson, then when it came back to me, Grant was on the table. The guy with the one pick (he took LDT first) grabbed two WRs, so I nabbed Jones-Drew with my third pick.

So in a one-QB league, I have Peterson, Grant, Jones-Drew, Len White on the bench and my QBs are Big Ben and Cutler as his backup.

I have Holt and White as my WRs.

The second pick is by far the best if the idiot with the one pick drafts two WRS to end the second round and start the third.

 

If I could handpick where I pick in the draft, I would want the third pick. No. 1 has to be LdT. No. 2 is a toss-up between Peterson and Westbrook. At No. 3, you don't have to make that decision.

I hate having the No. 1 pick because you have to wait forever for your second pick, and if you go RB-RB-RB/WR, you'll face pretty slim pickings when it gets back to you for your fourth pick.

 

Peterson wasn't a shell of his former self after his injury, it was more that teams adjusted to him. I had the second pick in a recent draft and selected him. My worry is that he'll get dinged up again, but, IMO, he's got a little more upside than Westbrook. Basically, I think his biggest games will be bigger than Westbrook's. On the other hand, there's no Chester Taylor to take regular carries away from Westbook, so he's less hit-and-miss from week to week.

As for the first pick, I'd take LT if I got the chance. He'll never equal his 30-plus TDs of a couple of years ago, but he's the safest pick.

 

I'd take Peterson.

 

I would much rather see Gus with AP than Tavarious. I think no pasing game at all has to hurt AP.

Plus, the SOB can't stay healthy, but then again, can "Gametime Decision" Westbrook?

 

LT is a no-brainer at No. 1.

The debate at No. 2 is between Westbrook and Peterson.

 

LT is #1 for me.

 

I don't think you can go wrong picking Tomlinson, Westbrook or Peterson in the top three. Tomlinson is first, then either of the other two at 2 or 3. Even if they bomb because of injuries, it's an easy decision to live with. Once you get by those guys is where it gets dicey.
To me, there's only two surefire QBs right now -- Brees and Romo. Brady, Peyton and Anderson are all hurt, Palmer's got no receivers left and you can't count on McNabb for a whole season. So do you gamble a bit and take either Brees or Romo in the middle of the first round? Or hope the other owners pass them over for a RB, and risk getting stuck with a second-tier guy?
And with Housh and Chad Johnson hurt, and Steve Smith suspended for three games, there's a pretty thin crop of elite receivers, too. I'd say the top of the draft is the only safe bet.

 

I did a draft last year where the first 18 picks were running backs. I'd say typically, there might be 4-5 non RBs taken in the first two rounds of 12-team leagues.