Gov. Richardson is in for 2008

If one were to try the guessing game of predicting the nominee at this point, here's the Democratic Primary (and Caucus) Schedule:

* January 14, 2008 - Iowa
* January 19, 2008 - Nevada
* January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire
* January 29, 2008 - South Carolina
* February 5, 2008 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma,Utah
* February 12, 2008 - District of Columbia, Tennessee, Virginia
* February 19, 2008 - Wisconsin
* February 26, 2008 - Hawaii, Idaho
* March 2008 (date to be determined) - American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Guam, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Virgin Islands, Wyoming
* March 4, 2008 - Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
* March 7, 2008 - Colorado
* March 8, 2008 - Kansas
* March 11, 2008 - Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi
* March 18, 2008 - Illinois, Oregon
* April 2008 (date to be determined) - Alaska
* April 1, 2008 - Pennsylvania
* May 6, 2008 - Indiana
* May 13, 2008 - Nebraska, West Virginia
* May 20, 2008 - Kentucky
* May 27, 2008 - Washington
* June 3, 2008 - Montana, South Dakota, California

New Hampshire officials have stated that by state law, theirs must be the first primary in the nation and must precede any similar contest by at least seven days, and thus, the state may not abide by DNC approved dates. The DNC has threatened to withhold NH delegates if the state moves the primary earlier than the 22nd.

 

Everything after March 4 will likely be irrelevant. I'll be shocked if it's a long primary season.

 

It could be a longer primary season than you might think.
If in the early going, Richardson can win Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Utah and one other state while Obama, Edwards, and Clinton split the rest, nobody will be close enough to clinch on March 4.

 

I'd love to see a horse race like anyone else, but I'd be surprised if it went past the first week of February.

The second-place finisher in Iowa (you know Vilsack wins there) will get all the mojo, and if that candidate wins or runs strong in N.H., it's ballgame. All the money goes to that candidate, and the rest wither.