GOP 2012 primaries thread

Re: Huckabee won't run

The Republicans never -- ever -- nominate a young up-and-comer who "comes out of nowhere."

It's almost some seasoned party veteran who's been hanging around forever, and it seems to be "his turn." See Dole, McCain, Reagan, Nixon-68.

The nearest things they've had to "young up-and-comers" in the last 60 years were Nixon-60 and GWB, and they were both "legacies" -- they were anything but fresh faces bursting on the scene out of nowhere.

Goldwater was kind of a surprise choice, but he was also a sacrificial lamb/designated scapegoat sent up by the moderate/"Rockefeller Republicans" to take a shellacking from LBJ and hopefully shut the Birchers up for a decade or so. Now, the Birchers are running the show and there is no such animal as a "moderate Republican."

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

We'll also have to see what the unemployment rate come next November. I heard a stat on Meet the Press this morning that when the unemployment rate is above 7.4%, Presidents/incumbent parties usually don't get re-elected. The unemployment rate is falling, but slowly. Getting it down to 7.4% by November 2012 will be difficult.

If gas prices and the unemployment rate fall far enough, I agree that Obama will win re-election easily. But it is more likely to be like Clinton's re-election victory in 1996 than Reagan's re-election victory. There are a lot of states, especially in the South, Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, that would never vote for a Democrat, let alone a Northeast/Chicago Democrat like Obama. Given the country's political makeup, it's going to be very hard for Obama - or any Democrat - to top Obama's '08 showing unless the Republican candidate has a truly horrific scandal. Even in the best scenario, Obama might be able to win Arizona, Missouri and Montana and his '08 states. That would put him at 382 electoral votes - a convincing win, but far short of Reagan's '84 landslide or even LBJ's '64 landslide.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Given current slate of GOP candidates Obama will win by a landslide. I plan to vote for him and I've never voted democrat in presidential election.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Suburbia is worried Obama tops out at 382 EVs.

I love this place.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Agree completely.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huckabee's a smart guy. Why spend a billion to compete with the foreign special interests in the Middle East who masqueraded this "grass roots" effort of a candidacy Obama plans to run, again? The minorities who thought he was going to help them can give maybe pennies. How many of the 20-30 percent combined underemployed/unemployed are giving to Obama? No way. It's all coming from people with an agenda that doesn't give a shit about America, and all it can do until he's ineligible for office is break the bank of a challenger. Let Mitt Dentyne take it, take his November beating, and let's get on to 2016, lest the system is beyond fucked at that point.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

What makes you think I'm "worried" about that?

A win is a win. Hell, Bush II won re-election by 100K votes in Ohio in 2004 and claimed he had a mandate. And FWIW, I think we're screwed no matter who wins. I'm not crazy with Obama, but the current crop of GOP candidates aren't the answer either.

I was just refuting the notion that Obama or any Democrat could repeat Reagan's landslide. They just can't.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Period from 2012 to 2016 will require a lot of major presidential decisions. Obama is one of the few with the balls to make them.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

And part of that fucked up system is being dually worked by the GOP Congress....which ironically got elected at the time the speculators began taking a crap on the middle class economy, again.

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Do you produce a pamphlet I can subscribe to, by any chance?

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Let the GOP run Palin and we'll find out, won't we?

 

Re: Huckabee won't run

Republicans realize that they can better shape the country by controlling Congress.