Global economic meltdown, Part Deux: China?

Are those numbers adjusted for inflation? Because if they aren't, they're meaningless.

 

No, they are not. But I can do it by hand for you real fast.

In 1987, looks like we manufactured about $2.5 trillion worth of stuff. The conversion rate for 1987 dollars to 2007 dollars is $1.80, so that would put it at about $4.5 trillion in 2007 dollars. In 2007, we manufactured about $5 trillion worth of stuff.

(previous graphs, however, were adjusted for inflation. This one wasn't my first choice)

 

This one is indexed to a base year, inflation is not an issue.

 

Rick: Walk through Wal-Mart some weekend. Count the items made abroad especially China, then count the items made in America. Then tell me what we still make here.

Perception is reality sometimes. You could post graphs and pie charts from now until hell freezes over, and it's not going to amount to diddly squat to the average worker who's seen his job disappear. That alleged $5 trillion GDP doesn't pay the mortgage or put food on the table for a displaced worker. For them, the GDP is a big fat zero.

The perception in this country is that we don't make anything any more. It's not an overnight thing. It's taken many years for that perception to take hold. And every manufacturing job lost just adds fuel to the fire.

 

So you think a "walk through walmart" is more telling than actual data?

We are on such completely different worlds here we have nothing to discuss.

 

So manufacturing output went up roughly 11 percent during a 20-year span when the GDP more than doubled (as measured using constant dollars).

 

Oops, I get where I goofed up now. The original chart was, in fact, adjusted for inflation. Completely my mistake.

Here's a graph that directly shows manufacturing's share of GDP in real and nominal dollars.

 

Manufacturing output -- the output of all factories in a country.

 

OK, so, what? A textile company moved its factory overseas. Not shocking. Bet a lot of textile companies have done that. (Historically, textiles have been a pretty transient industry). But, that in no way shape or form disproves Rick's point which is: The US Still Makes STUFF.
He isn't saying it makes the SAME stuff it used to.
He isn't saying the STUFF it makes now is made in the same cities or states where STUFF used to be made in the US.
He was simply arguing the point that the Chinese were in better shape than us because they make STUFF and we don't. He was arguing this point by pointing out that the US still makes STUFF.

 

Yeah, I've got nothing against that. Instead of making shirts, we're making computer chips. Definitely true.

And I really didn't want to fight Rick's fight for him. Just wanted to a) try to summarize what I thought was his argument in a clear manor, and b) provide a definition of manufacturing output.

A little interesting By the Numbers:
16 -- percent US manufacturing output from cars and planes.
15 -- "" "" "" "" "" from food (food processing. not farms)
15 -- "" "" "" "" "" from chemicals
9 -- "" "" "" "" "" from computers and electronics.

 

Not so much. Intel makes roughly half of the silicon wafers it uses in the U.S.¹ but exports that product to six overseas plants² where the actual computer chips and circuit boards are manufactured.

http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/manufacturing/manufacturing_qa.htm#1

AMD spun its manufacturing operations off to a company last March that makes all its product in Germany.

There's no legitimate reason that product can't be manufactured in the United States.

¹And the other half overseas.
²Two in China, two in Malaysia, one in Costa Rica and one in the Philippines. Intel is building another one in Viet Nam.

 

You keep saying that, I'll keep asking you to prove it. I've never known it to be calculated the way you claim.

How on earth are we supposed to measure how much stuff we are making if not by the value of it? Raw totals? Are 9 million slinkies "more" manufacturing than 8.5 million cars?

That's pretty easy. Technology has eliminated the need for many of the jobs the middle class counted on for decades.