Gambling Thread

I just bet to win on these parlays (sometimes I mix in ties which are usually value but not here). Haven’t had any luck on my over/unders since lockdown. I must be at 25 percent.

 

A beautiful middle tonight.

At halftime, 16-7 Seattle. I am a firm believer that Arizona scores second half points because teams get tired chasing Murray around.

Book A: 20.5 team total for Arizona points. OVER.

but wait...
Book B: 22 team total of Arizona. What the hell, let's take the UNDER!

 

Man... what a Sunday. I was a total degen.

Starts off with a "Same Game Parlay" (that was a free bet) for Titans-Ravens. My play is $20 (to win $95) on 1st half UNDER 24.5, Ravens 1st half ML and Ravens to score exactly three touchdowns. First two hit and then Lamar pooped the bed and never got the third score. So I'm out $20 but I got a free bet refund.

I was going to throw the $20 into the MLS game. San Jose - Kansas City. Only on KC to win. They score in the opening minute so that value is lost. But I believe that Kansas City will clamp down on defense. I choose to watch the game a little more and then it's 1-1 San Jose.
Here go the live bets. In order of how I bet them:
1) U4.5 total goals. $175 at -175 to win $100.
2) EXACTLY 5 goals. $20 at +350 to win $70.
3) 3-2 Kansas City correct score. $6 at +850 to win $52
4) O2.5 total goals first half. +155. $5 to win $7.75
5) Score a goal between 30:00 - 60:00. -167. $25 to win $15.
6) Score O1.5 goals between 30 and 60. -113. $40 to win $45.

Kansas City ties the game at 2 at 47'... Bet 4, 5 and 6 WIN.

More live bets:
7) San Jose to score the next goal. $12 at +270.
8) Score O2.5 goals between 30 and 60. +22. $10 to win $22.50

Bet 8 LOSES. Now we're at 81'. Still tied at 2.

9) O4.5 total goals. $35 at +160 to pay $56. I'm trying to "buy back" Bet #1 in case there's a late goal.

87th minute. Still 2-2

10) O4.5 total goals. $5 at +380 to win $19.

90th minutes. Still 2-2

11) O4.5 total goals at $12 at +500 to win $60.

I'm in great shape -- I'll clear money if it's 2-2 or 3-2 Kansas City... San Jose isn't attacking. I'm all good.

91st minute. Kansas City SCORES to lead 3-2. Only 4 minutes of Extra time! Bets 9, 10 and 11 all WIN. Bets 1 and 7 LOSE. But that's okay. I'll be up $90 as Bets 2 and 3 will win bring in $122 more.
Unless... San Jose scores. That won't happen, right? It will if the referee gives SEVEN minutes of stoppage time instead of four. Imagine the horror as San Jose pumps in the final goal at the final whistle.
Bets 2 and 3 lose. Instead of winning $90, I lose $32.

MY MISTAKE. Bet 11. I didn't do the math properly. I should have just bet $40 at +500 for $200 instead of $12.

Damn. If the Ravens get that third TD and KC hangs on, I win $178. Damn. Damn. Damn.

Down $32. Of course I went back to the well.

Easily won the other two MLS unders to go up $50... then put the profit onto Chiefs ML +120 at 31-28 Raiders. Cash it.

Damn that was stressy. But kinda fun.

 

Hit a nice 3-teamer last night. MLS late game.

Seattle to win.
Both teams to score.
U1.5 first half goals.

$25 at +677.

MLS does this a lot. 1-0 first half and an explosion of goals late.

 

Depends... let me take a look.

(Researching instead of writing the next newscast... )

Are you able to get an alternate total?

Book A: O130 points at -110
Book B... I see DK goes as low at U134.5 at +165. That's a decent middle.

What's the max you can get on O130... $50? Bet $50 there and $36 at +165 and you'll guarantee $9.40 and also have a 4 point middle.

My bonuses/promos today:
Bet five CBK games at $20 each, get a $50 free bet automatically.
BC-Villanova. Bet a team total and get $3 in free bets for every 3-pointer they hit.

 

8/9 of a UCL parlay. Hit the first 5 yesterday (won a smaller parlay), the 1 pm game and had comfortable leads in 2 of the remaining 3. But Atleti couldn’t score a goal — would have been a nice +2140 payout, albeit for very low stakes.

 

I don't know what my exact record is, but it feels like I'm about 16-1-1 on picks the last three Thanksgiving weekends. For whatever reason, this is the week in college football where I seem to nail everything.
Got off to a good start today with an Iowa State/Liberty/Notre Dame three-teamer that covered my nut for the weekend.

Tomorrow I have another three-teamer (Auburn +24.5 and over 62.5, and San Jose State +10.5 at Boise), and a standalone with LSU +14.5 at Texas A&M. I really wanted Rutgers +12 vs. Purdue, but for whatever reason it wasn't on the board at the casino's sports book when I went on Wednesday night.
Sunday is one last late-afternoon three-teamer with the Saints (-6 at Denver), Chiefs (-3.5 at Tampa) and Rams (-6.5 vs. 49ers).
We'll see if my Thanksgiving luck holds.

 

I did. Now wish I'd put a standalone bet on it, but oh well.
Gotta imagine it either comes off the books or skyrockets to double digits before kickoff.