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Gambling Thread

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Songbird, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Doesn't always work, obviously, but getting in late on steam in the WNBA isn't the worst thing in the world. There's no public money moving those numbers.

    In other words, I'm on Dallas -6. In part just to cross another league off my list in the pandemic bet-a-thon.
  2. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    I haven’t jumped in on the WNBA yet but I’m watching the line movement. Like a deer hunter tracking the prey.

    Give me both unders tonight on MLS. Each game has a total of 3 but take the plus money and go U2.5.
  3. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    I'm in on the first game and if that hits I'll chase the second. (Eh, what am I saying, I'll bet the second regardless.)

    And my love-hate, and more hate, relationship with baseball betting is in midseason form already.
  4. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    I got slapped around hard on the Angels-A’s opener. I bet Oakland ML -145 before the game and I let myself get all caught up in-game, trying to get too cute. Lost my ass except for one move. I saw Joakim Soria warming up to start the 7th and immediately hit the Angels to win the inning. That cashed.

    These MLS games feature superior teams that are fine winning 2-0. KC, especially, will get up 1-0 and just control the ball. All these teams are worn out from the humidity.

    However, LAFC-Seattle should be a shootout tomorrow. Wait until kick and if the total has dropped.

    For unders, play them early or even the night before. For overs, wait until post time.

    NYCFC is coming out super aggressive. They’ll run out of gas in about 20 minutes and Toronto will just sit on them.
  5. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Even in a pandemic, Soria still blows leads and Michael Bradley still gives the ball away and can’t clear free kicks.

    What I did tonight. After that early NYC goal, I immediately under U3.5 at +110. In a league that isn’t top tier, when there’s an early goal like this, go hit the live under right after a score.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2020
  6. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    During the last year, I’ve found soccer totals to be the easiest to live bet on.

    The live total always goes down until a goal hits. Even in baseball, the live totals go up if runners get on base. Soccer is a slower target to hit.

    I almost always play “under or pass”, with a few overs here and there. However, when I play overs, I’m much more at ease. Soccer under totals are a sweat.
  7. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Slightly advanced move coming. 2-0 NYCFC at 71’. I have U2.5 and U3.5. About equal units.

    If it gets to 4 goals, I lose both. If it gets to 3, I push. If it stays 2, I win both.

    So we’ll buy O2.5 at the reverse price as I bought the U2.5 pregame.

    This makes a 1-unit win for 2 or 3 and a one-unit loss for 4.
  8. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    The soccer streak ends but glad I lost one unit and not two.
  9. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Lock of the year. MLS. Philly-KC. If you get under 3 total goals, hit it.

    Also, if you find KC at plus money to win, sprinkle a little there.

    Neither team has great offense, all of the teams are worn down from playing every 3 days. By the 70th minute, legs are shot.
  10. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Kicking myself (no pun intended) for sleeping on the MLS unders last night. I'm on the under-2.5 here for plus money, had some free bets to spend.

    One golf matchup this week that I heard a guy discussing and I concur: Reed over Finau at the WGC-Memphis. Reed often rises up in strong fields and Finau's due for a letdown after a couple weeks of near-misses.
  11. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    I'm on the "under 3" at -115 from WH but DK right now has "over 3" at +125. That's an automatic winner. I think it'll get to +135 or +140 by game time. MLS totals almost always drop by game time.

    LAFC is playing tonight. Do NOT go under - in any circumstance - with LAFC. They're the Texas Tech Football of the MLS.

    Late edit: I see neither game is tonight. I'm so used to two MLS games a night. Now it's one Thursday, one Friday. Good for me. That KC total will drop in the next 24 hours.
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2020
    MileHigh likes this.
  12. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Now at +132. I have $300 on the -115 under. If I bet it back, that’s a hedge profit of $19. That is what I do.

    I’ll sit and see if it gets to +140 by game time.
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