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Gambling Thread

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Songbird, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    Six minutes of stoppage.
  2. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    And the under holds on.
    playthrough and exmediahack like this.
  3. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Final is 2-0 Cincinnati. The U2.5 wins... parlay is still alive.

    So now I'm "into" the parlay for $81 ($40 initial + $41)... the $41 I spent is a bit more than I like to spend, hedging the first leg. However, I had a wide gap to close. U2.5 was +105 and the lowest O2.5 at the start of the game was -127.

    The next leg is Minn-Colorado U2.5 at +120. That means I'll need to get to a "winning point" of $81 on the O2.5 to break even -- if the parlay craps out. To flip the U2.5 +120, let's say it's O2.5 at -120. I have $97 to spend to get to $81 in winnings at -120.

    Let me see where my books are for O2.5 right now...
    Draft Kings: -118... well, well, Christmas comes early. That was -155 two hours ago. Everyone must be jumping on the MLS Under train. (Another tip: If you bet MLS under, do so the night before the AM games and the mornings of the PM games. Prices go down. However, don't do this with Portland, LAFC or Toronto -- they can actually score.)

    Book B: Only offering a O3 at +110. Pricks.
    Local Book C: -145... that's a hard pass.
    Local Book D: -115. SOLD.

    In an ideal world, I need to reach the $81 in winnings for O2.5 with a minimum amount of outlay. (In a 3- or 4-leg parlay where one hedges, you need at least one leg where you're barely hedging at all)

    So let's put $30 on O2.5 at (-115). That'll get me to $26 in winnings. I still some bets at better in-game numbers.
    If no goals get scored in the first 20 minutes, I will look to:
    $10 on O2.5 at +125. $12.50 in winnings - $38.50 total
    $10 on O2.5 at +150. $15 in winnings. $53.50 total with an outlay of $46.

    What's left:
    I have $45 left in outlay to get to $37.50 in winnings.
    If a goal gets scored in the first half, then I'll need to wait until O2.5 gets to -120 ($45 to win $37.50).

    However... if it's a scoreless first half (not uncommon in MLS with bad teams), the O2.5 will be about +450 at halftime.
    So then I'll put $15 at +450. $67.50 in winnings.
    Total: $121 in winnings off $61 spent.

    That's the ideal plan. Let's see what happens.
  4. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    NWSL pumps in 2 in the first seven minutes. A Doosan Bears Over level of run there.
    playthrough likes this.
  5. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Also... when doing this approach, you need to catch a middle somewhere along the way. While betting U2.5 on the parlay, you need a scoreless first half so you can go O1.5 at, say, +120, at halftime... and try and win both.
  6. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Crap. 1-1 in the first half.

    Right now, I’ll only lose $11 if/once it goes over. I was able to get quite a bit down on the over.
  7. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member


    And to all a good night.
  8. HappyCurmudgeon

    HappyCurmudgeon Well-Known Member

    Not sure who checks out WNBA lines but I have a few friends that are just salivating for the start of the season to take advantage of lines.
    exmediahack likes this.
  9. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Apparently, even a higher power decided to end Chicago-Vancouver early. 0-0. Looking back, glad the parlay lost as I’d be on the hook if today’s morning game is graded as “no action”.

    There will be major line differences on WNBA because so much of the focus will be on the other sports. I’ll be looking for line differences. DK has a promo where you get 4% back in cash after you deposit. So, if you bet $100, you get $4 more. If you find line differences (Sky -2 and one place, -3.5 at another), that can significantly cut down on the juice.
  10. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    Wanna trade screen names?
  11. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    Saw an ad today from BetMGM. Colorado only, new customers only. Bet $1 to win $100 if a home run is hit in the Nationals-Yankees game tonight.
  12. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Not with my picks lately :)
    MileHigh likes this.
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