Gambling Thread

There seems to have been a flurry of late scoring in many EPL games. Have tried to place overs after the second half water break but have chosen poorly.

 

Have had some success playing overs live at 80+ minutes. Say it’s 1-1, have hit quite a few o2.5 +230-250 of late. Lots of extra time goals.

 

Easy money.

 

Anyone here looking at NBA Futures?

I bought three teams today.

Pacers 125-1
Thunder 100-1
Nets 500-1

Likely none of them will win the NBA Title. That means they’ll have an elimination game, the Nets may even have one before the playoffs.

Example. Pacers. $32 to win $4,000. They’ll play up to four rounds. In the first round, be willing to lose up to $250 total. If they are never facing an elimination game, don’t put any action into play. If it’s Game 7, go up to $250 in-game. Best case: they jump up early and then play the other team at +300. If before Game 7, maybe it’s $40 or $50.

What I’m hoping is the Pacers or Thunders get past the first round and then start cashing in.

 

I have the Celtics at +2000 (which is now down to +1700) for 2 reasons. Draft Kings is running a promo that a $25 bet on the title gets you a free $25 bet for the opening few days of the restart. Second, my betting partner and I have a wager with a friend that the Celtics would not win the title over a 3-year period and this is the last year. Bet is for an very expensive bottle (Opus One) so since we were thinking of hedging the bet regardless, it’s an perfect way to do it.

I think that there is money to be made that first week — some teams aren’t going to care at all.

 

What is the spread between a winning and a losing bet at a betting site? What is the house cut?

 

They typically start out at the traditional -110 for spread bets and adjust according to the handle. The more exotic the bet where you can see both sides (like if a player will score 2 TDs or more in a game) the higher the vig. Two sided live betting is usually closer to 30-40 percent.

 

Live betting is usually 30 cents (-150 to +120), for example. I have multiple "outs" on my phone so I'll play them off against each other all the time.

 

I know that no one cares about your bad beats, but for the 4 EPL games today, I had a parlay —. Sheffield United/Wolves to draw, Burnley and Man City to win in the early games and Liverpool to win in the late one. +2208.

Going into injury time of the early games, all 3 are hitting and I’m thinking whether and how to hedge . With basically the last kick of the game, Sheffield United scores off of a corner. And of course, Liverpool is cruising.

 

Double ouch. Today was a ROUGH day on soccer for an under player. Lots of early goals (first 10 minutes) and I just couldn't get the live totals back to the original bet. Every time the live total would start the slide from 3.5 to 2.5 (where I could buy the bet back, even at heavy juice), someone would pump in a goal.

It was like a Jags-Titans game where the total is 33 and Bortels and Mariota trade Pick-Sixes in the first quarter. If you've got the under, you're spending the rest of the game rooting for 6-play drives that end in punts.

 

Wading into DK today with that free bet bonus. Their bonuses and odds boosts are enticing but their lines are terrible. Heavy straddle on soccer and table tennis.