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Gambling Thread

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Songbird, Oct 18, 2013.

  1. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    Books are pushing the SGP because the odds aren’t good for us. Especially the DK one. I did hit one last night - a rarity for me. Lions +7.5 first half, Rodgers 2 TD, under 52.5. No business hitting that under. 40 won 144.

    I also hit in-game hedges. Hit two drives where the Packers got a TD. That were second half to try and salvage the U52.5. A nice 65.
     
  2. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    Two of my favorite college football betting trends converge this weekend — the Big Ten underrated/overrated phenomenon, and the Alabama 39-point rule.

    The first is with Rutgers +20.5 at Michigan. The Big Ten seems to have about a half-dozen teams that get either way too much credit (Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State) or not nearly enough (Rutgers, Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota) based solely on reputation, and when they play each other magic can happen. These are two of those teams. Rutgers appears to not be so terrible, and this looks a like standard-issue eight-win Michigan team. I think Rutgers can stay within three touchdowns. Love this game.

    The second is my favorite documented but goofy gambling trend — Alabama's putrid ATS record in the Nick Saban era (since 2007) when it's favored by 39 or more against non-Power 5 teams. Alabama is 2-15-1 in those games. And they're giving 44.5 against Southern Miss on Saturday.
    I don't want any part of this one, though.
    Southern Miss is not good at all and has quite a few red flags. They'll have a true freshman QB making his first road start, in a 100,000-seat stadium, against the No. 1 team in the country. They gave up nine sacks last week to Troy. And they've scored one touchdown in eight quarters against FBS competition. So while the defense might be able to hold Alabama under 56, I have no confidence in their offense's ability to score the 10-14 points they'd need to cover this spread — or any points, for that matter. If Alabama decides to really put the hammer down for whatever reason, this could be 75-0.
    Out of respect for the trend, and the potential for one fluke touchdown to swing this thing either way, it'll be a stay-away. I really want to love Southern Miss in this game, but I just can't.
     
  3. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    The Alabama sweet spot is whenever they’re favored by 15 to 29 points. That’s where to hit them.

    Plus Alabama first half.
     
  4. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

  5. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    They didn't cover 52 against Mercer but will win this one by 50+
     
  6. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    Dang, I forgot to count the Mercer game in that stat. Make it 2-16-1.
    And I still don't like this one. If I had to bet it, I would take Alabama. But I think it'll be close either way, like 45-0 or 49-7 or 52-7. Alabama simply doesn't win these games 63-0, even though they could. Like I said, it just comes down to not trusting Southern Miss more than anything.
    As much as I love that stat and try to keep up with it every year, the much better play is to pick up that first-half number around 25 points and figure Alabama is up 31-0 or 35-0 at halftime instead of sweating out a patented Alabama stall in the second half.
     
  7. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Neutral Corner likes this.
  8. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

     
  9. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    That's very good news. Now he should quit.
     
    MileHigh likes this.
  10. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    That's a good decision to cash out.
     
  11. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Very shrewd work by BetMGM too to blast that out. You think they'll get a few more 16-way NFL moneyline parlays this weekend?
     
    MileHigh likes this.
  12. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    But he just hit a 16-team parlay! He's red hot, man!
     
    playthrough likes this.
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