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Future 3000 hit club

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Gehrig, Oct 12, 2011.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    I would absolutely love to see Juan Pierre get there or at least challenge it for no other reason than to see Baseball Think Factory's head explode when columnists begin earnestly discussing his Hall of Fame credentials at 3,000 hits and an ungodly number of stolen bases.
     
  2. Sea Bass

    Sea Bass Well-Known Member

    I absolutely cannot believe Omar Vizquel is that close to 3000.
     
  3. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    Beltre having a legit chance suprised me.
     
  4. Shaggy

    Shaggy Guest

    I've never thought anyone who is only halfway there is a lock.

    But Miguel Cabrera is a lock.

    The quirky thing is, Miggy has never had a 200-hit season. But his eight full seasons in the majors have produced hit totals of 198, 198, 197, 195, 188, 180, 180 and 177.
     
  5. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    Damon has a much better chance than Vizquel. Vizquel is about 150 hits, but he's 44 and doesn't play regularly. He's going to have play as long as Julio Franco to have a shot. But if Damon has merely two more years like 2011, he'll make it to 3,000. And Damon is only 37.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/damonjo01.shtml
     
  6. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Here are the players with the best shot at 3000. They are all active players with 1500-2999 career hits and with more hits at their current age than at least one of the members of the 3000 Hit Club at the same age (excluding Anson, who is a big outlier).

    Above the median:

    • Alex Rodriguez: 35, 2775, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Speaker, Musial
    • Albert Pujols: 31, 2073, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Kaline
    • Adrian Beltre: 32, 2033, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Clemente, Speaker, Kaline, Musial, Rose, Jeter, Ripken, Carew, Waner, Mays (tied)
    • Carl Crawford: 29, 1609, more than everyone except Cobb, Aaron, Yount, Kaline, Speaker, Clemente, Musial
    • Miguel Cabrera: 28, 1597, more than everyone except Cobb, Yount, Aaron, Kaline
    Below the median:

    • Ivan Rodriguez: 39, 2844, more than Boggs, Biggio, Winfield, Henderson
    • Johnny Damon: 37, 2723, more than Brett, Brock, Molitor, Wagner, Palmeiro, Boggs, Biggio, Henderson, Winfield
    • Vladimir Guerrero: 36, 2590, more than Lajoie, Gwynn, Yastrzemski, Brock, Brett, Molitor, Palmeiro, Wagner, Winfield, Boggs, Henderson, Biggio
    • Ichiro Suzuki: 37, 2428, more than Winfield
    • Edgar Renteria: 34, 2327, more than Yastrzemski, Lajoie, Brett, Gwynn, Brock, Palmeiro, Henderson, Wagner, Boggs, Molitor, Winfield, Biggio
    • Michael Young: 34, 2061, more than Biggio
    • Juan Pierre: 33, 2020, more than Brock, Henderson, Palmeiro, Boggs, Winfield, Wagner, Molitor, Biggio
    • Jimmy Rollins: 32, 1866, more than Gwynn, Brock, Palmeiro, Boggs, Winfield, Wagner, Molitor, Biggio
     
  7. qtlaw

    qtlaw Well-Known Member

    IMHO Ichiro has already had a HOF career, the seamless transition was mind-boggling. For him to get 3000 would be phenomenal.

    Hard to fathom that Ivan and Damon are so close, especially I-Rod.

    Beltre has a shot, better than I thought.

    He and Damon getting it would make them in my eyes the Sutton of the 3000 club; never really viewed as the best but how do you ignore the numbers? Well Beltre has had a few tremendous seasons (contract years).
     
  8. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    It's all about getting hits before you are 23.

    Beltre just finished his 14th ML season and he is 32.
     
  9. Starman

    Starman Well-Known Member

    I dunno. Cabrera isn't in good shape now and isn't likely to get in better shape as he gets older. Huge fat guys are susceptible to sudden catastrophic career dropoffs and major injuries.

    The upside is, so far he's been pretty much injury-free. But if he keeps lugging 275 pounds, at some point it's going to catch up to him.
     
  10. Sea Bass

    Sea Bass Well-Known Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  11. Cubbiebum

    Cubbiebum Member

    He's big but no Fielder or Mo Vaughn.
     
  12. dreunc1542

    dreunc1542 Active Member

    I don't know if Cabrera will get to 3,000 hits, but when I watch him, he reminds me of Manny Ramirez with how well he wields the bat. That's about the highest compliment I can give a right-handed hitter.
     
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