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Future 3000 hit club

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Gehrig, Oct 12, 2011.

  1. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Alright, guys. I finally had the balls to create a new thread. Please don't shoot me ;D.

    I made a chart of the top 100 active players in career hits, comparing them by age to each other and to the current members of the 3000 Hit Club. The players are sorted first by age at which they reached 1000 hits, then 2000 hits, then 3000 hits. Cap Anson is listed twice, the first time including his NA hits and the second time excluding them. The only player here with under 1000 hits is Prince Fielder, who is 4 shy of the mark. What do you think?

    So, based on their ages and rate of hit collection, I'd say that the active players with at least 1500 hits who have the best chances of reaching 3000 (besides the obvious A-Rod) are Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Crawford, Beltre, Vlad, Pierre, and Rollins. Damon is likely to get there one way or the other. Michael Young and Renteria look like they have an outside shot at it, though the latter is slowing down. Chipper also might make it, but given his age, I doubt it. Of course, Pudge and Vizquel are the closest to 3000 among active players; unfortunately, I don't think they have enough left in them to make it. A few years ago, Andruw Jones was on pace for the magic number, but he's already petering out and won't make it, IMO. I'm rooting for Ichiro -- even with his age and late start working against him, I expect him to hang on past 40 to get 3000.
  2. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Unfortunately, the picture is to small. This might be a stupid question, but is there a way to add attachments so everyone can see my chart?
  3. CarltonBanks

    CarltonBanks New Member

    I think Vizquel will make it. He still has some talent and, defensively, is still above-average at third. He can't play SS anymore (he can, but not competently) but can hold his own at third. He has a couple of years left in him.
  4. Cubbiebum

    Cubbiebum Member

    upload the photo a image hosting website and then provide a link
  5. MankyJimy

    MankyJimy Active Member

    Looking at the candidates, I really can't avoid the conclusion that Jeter might be the last 3000 hit club member for a long, long time.

    I don't see any of the active players hanging on long enough to get there.
  6. deviljets7

    deviljets7 Member

    Ummm. you really don't see ARod getting the 225 hits needed over the next 6 years of his contract? Between him, Damon, Pudge and Vizquel I'd be stunned if there wasn't at least 1 guy who reaches 3,000 before Jeter's massively overpaid contract expires.
  7. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  8. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Alright, I think I was able to make it work. Hopefully you guys can see the chart.

  9. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    Michael Young should get there. He's only 34 and has about 2,100 hits, and should keep racking up 200 hits a year in the role the Rangers have him in. (He sure has been stinking it up in the ALCS, though.)

    The closer a player gets to 3,000, the longer he's going to hang on to try to get there. So candidates are pretty easy to identify based on age, average hits per season and number of hits accrued already. Of course, that doesn't mean those players are locks to get there at all.
  10. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    I should've mentioned Beltre too. He's practically neck-and-neck with Young in career hits and is 2 1/2 years younger.
  11. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Here's an interesting look at what Ichiro might of done if he came in the Majors at an earlier age.


    Source: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/zips_record_watch_ichiro_suzuki/

    This analysis of Ichiro is interesting. If the translations are accurate, his total hit count on the Mariners from 1992-2000 (1275) would have been almost the same as his actual NPB count (1278). Of course, his average is worse in MLB, dropping from 0.353 to (a still quite respectable) 0.322, because his total AB rose from 3619 to 3957. Part of this is obviously due to the longer seasons in MLB than in NPB, but I'm guessing the difference in BA is primarily due to the translations' treatment of the NPB as a lower caliber league than MLB.
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
  12. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    By percentages...

    99 percent chance of getting 3,000 - Arod

    70 percent - Omar Vizquel, Damon

    60 percent - Pujols, Cabrera

    50 percent - Chipper

    30 percent - Vlad, Cano, Beltre, Pudge

    20 percent - Pedroia, Braun

    10 percent - Crawford, Reyes, Ichiro, Wright

    5 percent - Castro, Melky, Kemp,
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