First two quarterbacks drafted by year - rank 'em

Nine of the 12 quarterbacks selected first overall from 1998 on are starters. All of those nine (possible exception: Sam Bradford) are somewhat entrenched in their jobs.

The three non-quarterbacks selected in that span had similar results: Jake Long is an elite left tackle, Mario Williams is a very good (albeit overpaid) defensive end and Courtney Brown was never more than an acceptable starter.

 

Didn't even notice Josh Freeman on that list. Andy Dalton was omitted, though. So it's 23 first-rounders and nine others or 22 first-rounders and 10 others, depending on who you call the Chiefs' starter.

 

I think 2002 was worse. Russell was bad, but was Brady Quinn that big of a disappointment? Did anyone outside of the craziest Browns fans really believe in him? David Carr and Joey Harrington? They were supposed to be a franchise starter and franchise saver.

 

I'm not even sure how you bring up 2003. Carson Palmer was really, really good at one point. The injuries got to him, but first he led the Bengals to two playoff berths and a respectable-given-the-team 46-51 record as a starter. And Byron Leftwich was never remarkable, but he had a 24-20 record as Jaguars starter and still might be a starter had it not been for the injuries.

The worst pairing on MisterCreosote's list might be David Klingler and Todd Marinovich, but they were picked low enough that 2002 is the choice. The second-most disappointing pair might be Jeff George and Andre Ware. As I understand it, George was viewed as a pretty exceptional No. 1 pick, a can't-miss type.

 

Tony eason.

 

Roar lion roar.

 

Well, really, shouldn't it be about a success rate of 20 percent? Teams will blindfold themselves and throw a dart to pick a sixth-round QB.

I'm sure their teams were not honestly expecting Ryan Lindley, B.J. Coleman or Chandler Harnish to be the answer.

And remember, this draft wasn't seven rounds all through history.

 

How can we accurately assess the 1995 combination with Kerry Collins still contemplating his 12th comeback to the NFL sometime in Week 10 or Week 11?

 

How about we go with the three most...meh? Not successful, not failures. Just a nice batch of meh.

3. Bledsoe/Mirer
2. Stafford/Sanchez
1. Palmer/Leftwich

(Edited to clear out Creosote's original post, which I had quoted for reference)

 

George was a workout wonder. In his last year in college, he was considered a second-rounder, maybe a late first-round pick. Then scouts saw him throw 90 yards in workout clothes, and suddenly he leaped to the top. I wonder if the Colts, hemorrhaging fans at a fast rate by 1990, figured that drafting a local kid would surely attract fans. Clearly they didn't realize that everyone locally hated him.

 

I think there are two factors at play here:

1) Kind of like centers in the NBA, teams take more chances on quarterbacks just because of how supremely valuable they are. The difference between an elite quarterback to average to subpar is large at each step, and it's the same with NBA centers. As a result, any 7-footer with a strong pulse is taken in the lottery usually, and even if they don't have a pulse they still normally get drafted in the first round or imported from Europe in the second. Similar with quarterbacks, if you have a strong arm and an impressive combine, a team will take a chance on you.

2) But as others have mentioned, teams are getting a bit smarter about things because of failures like Jeff George, Ryan Leaf and Demarcus Russell. Sometimes, it's not a good year for QBs and you have to take one anyone, but most of the advanced stats now suggest that metrics like games started in college and accuracy (in non-spread offenses) are important things to factor in. The most "famous" is probably the Lewin Career Forecast, which got an upgrade for 2012: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2012/lewin-career-forecast-2012

 

Do you honestly think there's an NFL team that spends five seconds looking at something like the Lewin Career Forecast? Holy Lord.