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Fantasy Baseball 2019 running thread

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by bigpern23, Feb 28, 2019.

  1. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    Dynasty league I have Berrios for $18. Guy just offered me Snell for him straight up. Berrios has a 0.40 lower ERA, 50 more points scored for the season and eight wins (wins are super valuable in this league - 10 points/per). The peripherals suggest Snell is better than his current 3.50 ERA. Berrios will cost $27 next year, $41 in 2021. Snell will be $8 next year, $12 in 2021.

  2. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    Snell is better.
  3. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Snell was better last year, but Berrios is every bit as talented. He also pitches for a team with a great offense, which makes it more likely he will keep winning.

    You are certainly cutting costs with the deal, but I think you are weakening your team with that trade.
  4. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    I tend to agree. Unfortunately, he doesn't much else on his roster that would interest me because of cap space. My team is in ninth place, but second overall in points scored, so I'm not exactly ready to look toward next year at this point.

    I think I'd need to get something else to balance it out.
  5. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    I guess the question, too, is whether Berrios will sustain (or improve) this ERA, given that his FIP and SIERA suggest something closer to 4.00, while Snell's suggest something closer to sub-3.00.
  6. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    Checked the splits, and Snell has actually already been better over the last month. Berrios' wins essentially make up the entire point differential between the two. But if he starts giving up more runs, that differential may not continue. I think I'm going to do it.
  7. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    It's not a bad deal. Berrios can be a little streaky, so I'd be careful about reacting to a recent trend, but it's not like there is a huge gap between them and you do save a lot of cap space this year and beyond. At worst, maybe you hurt your team a little this season while gaining the flexibility.
  8. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    This might be short-sighted, but at 4-6 and two games out of a playoff spot with five or six teams ahead of me, I kind of have to be. I realized that if I made the trade today, I'd get Berrios pitching for me tomorrow during the veto period, and have Snell in my lineup in time for Friday's start. That kind of tipped the scales, though I was already leaning toward doing it. Hopefully, it could be a boost I need to get a win this week against a good team.
  9. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    You've got to grab every little advantage you can.

    I've got a trade offer in my money league, but I'm not sure exactly how to explain it without getting lost in the weeds of our scoring system and rules. I almost hit reject without even giving it consideration, but I figured I'd post here to see if anybody thinks I'm missing something.

    It is a keeper league. We protect eight veterans and five minor leaguers every offseason. Minor leaguers are basically players who still have rookie eligibility. Veterans kept have their salary go up $5. A player who loses rookie eligibility has his salary go up $3. The minor leaguers don't go up at all. I'll list the players offered and who he wants from me with current salaries.

    I would get:
    Patrick Corbin $10
    Craig Kimbrel $25
    John Means $3
    Taylor Trammel $1

    He would get:
    Austin Meadows $4
    Yordan Alvarez $3

    Alvarez was called up yesterday, though he's not a sure thing to stick just yet. He has been abusing AAA pitchers all season and hit a home run in his debut with the Astros yesterday. Meadows is a former top prospect who seems to be emerging as a star.

    I do have a need for starting pitching, but it seems to me that he's asking way too much. Even with Alvarez up, I've got six minor leaguers on my roster that I like, so Trammel doesn't really appeal. Also, my hope is Alvarez does stick. If I could keep Meadows at $9 and Alvarez at $6 as two of my eight veterans, that could put me in a great position in terms of salary flexibility.

    Edit: Make that two home runs in two games for Alvarez. :)
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
  10. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    I got another offer in the same league. I can trade Mitch Keller, an elite prospect who I have for $1, for my choice of Julio Teheran ($3), Lance Lynn ($6) or Wade Miley ($6). He's also got Glasnow for $6, but I don't think he'll part with that one and he is an injury risk..

    None of those are great pitchers, but I've got plenty of prospects without Keller. I don' t trust Teheran's current numbers, but he seems like the best option.

    I'm in fourth place, which would cover my league fee for next year, but I'm within 10 points of first. I'm also about to get Clevinger back, so I should be able to make a move in most of the pitching categories. I hate to give up Keller, but I'm in a position to make a real run this year.

  11. bigpern23

    bigpern23 Well-Known Member

    I wouldn’t do that deal. Who knows what Kimbrel, Means or Trammel will do this season or beyond. Alvarez appears to be the real deal and Meadows looks strong as well.
  12. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Thanks. I already rejected it. Now he's offering Mitch Haniger, Brian Dozier, Howie Kendrick, Means and Corbin for Alvarez and Josh Bell. It's a little better because I don't fully trust Bell's breakout this season, but who knows how long Haniger is out and the others aren't anything special.

    If anything, trading Keller for Teheran makes more sense to me right now.
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