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FanDuel.com

Discussion in 'Anything goes' started by Dick Whitman, Jul 8, 2013.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    See, I was wondering if the key was finding out who is OVERVALUED because of things like that. In other words, are pitcher-hitter matchups just noise because of the small sample sizes involved? Same with streaks and slumps? And are those things wrongfully being added into player values?

    I'm going to try something. I'm going to try to find pitching value for a few nights in a row and see how I do. Wins are worth a lot of points, and if you can find cheap wins from mediocre pitchers, then you can really load up on offense.

    Tonight, after analyzing the match-ups, I decided to go with Roberto Hernandez. He's pitching at home against an OK starting pitcher (Deduno), for a team that scores a lot more runs than the team he is pitching against.

    I also thought about John Lannan, PHI, at home against WASH, Matt Garza pitching in Chicago, but on the road, against a terrible White Sox batting order, and Jon Lester, who is facing a bad Mariners lineup, but available at a considerable discount because he's pitching against King Felix.
     
  2. JakeandElwood

    JakeandElwood Well-Known Member

    Giving this a shot. It looks like you can set up private matches, so if anyone on here wants to play, let me know.
     
  3. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    So looking back at my pitching picks for last night:

    * Hernandez, who I ultimately picked, returned 6 points on a $5,200 salary.
    * John Lannan, who I strongly considered, return 16 points on a measly $4,800 salary. Value pick of the night.
    * Matt Garza returned 16 points on a $7,500 salary.
    * Jon Lester returned 6 points on a $6,600 salary.

    Obviously still trying to figure it out, but not bad. Derek Holland, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Slowey, and Bartolo Colon also ended up bringing excellent value last night, pitching-wise.

    In hindsight, I should have carried through my Wall Street principles here and hedged on all those pitchers and started each one in about five match-ups or so. I think I would have come out ahead for the night that way.
     
  4. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    It feels lame to do it, but Wainwright ($9,800) and Verlander ($8,500), pitching at home tonight against sad sack lineups, feel like hanging curveballs over the middle of the plate. I also pitched Josh Johnson ($6,300) in a few games, as he seemed like good value against the Indians. Cole Hamels ($7,100) at home against the Nationals is tempting, as well, if I want to add some more hedge at lunch today. He's undervalued right now, and pitching at home against a team that doesn't score many runs and strikes out a lot.
     
  5. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    Dayum, yeah.
     
  6. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    I believe it. I at least believe it's possible. I'm sure there's a way to crack the system, particularly in quant-friendly games like baseball and basketball, as opposed to the NFL and hockey. At that point, like poker before it, it's just a matter of how much money you have to pour into it.
     
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