Epstein, Hoyer to Cubs

So the Boston guy and the White Sox fan think Theo is in trouble. Well, I'm sold.

 

Trouble? Wouldn't say that. Theo is definitely a big improvement over Jim Hendry. However it will be harder that you can imagine to make the Cubs into a consistent winner and Theo hasn't had to do it without a top 3 payroll. When Theo took over as GM in November of 2002, he inherited a team that won 93 games in 2002. The Cubs are a much bigger challenge that taking over a 90+ wins franchise with a top 2 payroll.

IMO, the Tribune ripped off the Ricketts family in the sale. Loaded up the team with undervalued TV & radio contracts with Trib subsidiaries that will hurt revenues for at least the next 10 years. By my estimation, the Ricketts paid $200+M more than the franchise was worth at the time the purchase was finalized. Wrigley Field also needs $200+M in renovations to make it viable long term. If the Ricketts can't get their sweetheart $300M bond deal through Springfield, they'll be cashed strapped for years to come. There's a good reason Mark Cuban bowed out early in the bidding to buy the Cubs, and it wasn't because he feared he wouldn't get MLB approval.

IMO, Ricketts should have tried to convince Andrew Friedman from the Rays to make the move to the Cubs. He at least has proven he can take a loser and put together a very good team without breaking the bank in payroll. The 2011 wild card Rays payroll was $42M, while the third place Bosox was $163+M. Hiring Friedman might have even given the Cubs the upper hand in hiring Joe Maddon as manager since his contract is up after the 2012 season.

Theo is just as likely to become the newer Cubs version of Andy MacPhail than he is to win his 3rd World Series ring. Will he just be the next Cubs "Great Hyped Hope" or will he lead them to a World Series title in the next 5 years? Only time will tell.

 

So you wouldn't say Theo will fail, yet you just listed myriad reasons he will fail.

The Cubs have one of the highest revenue streams in MLB. Are they the Yankees or Red Sox? No. But you act as though they aren't profitable.

And Epstein won't have to spend $165 million to keep up with the Yankees in the NL Central. The Cubs are the largest market and most profitable team in the division. Even with a $135 million payroll, the Cubs still have a sizable advantage over the rest of the division.

Good lord, are you sure you're not a Cubs fan? You certainly have the pessimism part down. If the White Sox had fired Williams and hired Epstein, you'd be turning fucking cartwheels.

 

No I wouldn't. I would if Reinsdorf fired Kenny and hired Andrew Friedman though.

Will you consider Theo a failure if he doesn't get the Cubs into a World Series, let alone win one, in the next five years?

 

No. I'm giving him seven years. It's going to take two just to clean up Hendry's mess.

 

Also, holy shit, but could people suck off Friedman any more? Great, Epstein made some bad free agent signings.

You know why Friedman hasn't made any? Because he can't sign any free agents. Easy to not make any mistakes when you can't even make an attempt.

It's also easy to reload the farm system when your team is so dogass awful it keeps picking in the top 10 every year. Epstein built up the Red Sox farm system without making high draft picks. Let's see how Friedman does in the draft with lower picks.

 

Oh, yes. His GMWAR would probably break the formula.

Seriously, it would make him a Baseball God.

 

But can Theo start threads?

 

Also, let me revise my earlier post. It's not easy to load up your farm system with consistent top-10 picks. Look at the Pirates, for example.

But it's definitely easier.

 

The Cubs have been generally awful for more than a century. They should have the farm system thing down by now, no?

 

That's funny.

 

People who keep listing reasons why Epstein could fail in Chicago are really grasping. Instead, they should just concede how badly they want him to fail. He's a very good GM. He's going to revamp their entire scouting department/minor leagues, probably streamline their operating budget so that at the very least they're better allocating their resources, and turn them into a consistent contender for the division, but when he doesn't win a World Series, people will be clawing all over one another to scream FAIL! FAIL! FAIL! he can only win with a gigantic payroll.

The Cubs just got so much better and so much more professional. That alone is going to make this a good hire, regardless of titles won or not.