Does Derek Jeter win in Tennessee?

It may decide whether the Dems get a sweep.

 

On the ground there, insiders worry that they can't get good polling data on this race.

The question is whether people are being honest with pollsters on the question of whether they would vote for a black candidate. A friend, well-wired to the state Dems, calls it the "missing 15" -- as in, the 15 percent of people who are lying when they're polled. That would turn a race inside the margin of error into a Republican victory by a significant margin.

He's run a good race, would likely make a good senator unless he's been lying about all of those things he's said during the campaign. If his name was Smith or Jones, he'd win 54-45. But he's a Ford from Memphis, and that comes with a full set of remarkable political baggage. If he wins, it'll be close -- probably decided by the cemetary precincts in Memphis.

 

I'm pulling for him, but I have friends in Nashville that aren't too fond of the guy.

 

I have a bad feeling the Captain's coming up short.

 

Corker carries my home state by at least 9 points.

 

As a Tennessee native and a South Park Republican, the ideal set of circumstances would be for him to win -- but without affecting the control of the Senate. I have trouble doing the math on that one, at the moment.

 

Harold Ford Jr. is overrated and doesn't deserve the MVP.

 

I think 15 is overstating it. But there is definitely a black candidate tax of 5%.

I think Corker wins 53-47.

 

Yeah, I thought 15 sounded a little high.

 

Good story on Ford Jr. in this week's Newsweek. I say he wins.

 

I'm a die-hard GOPer (duh), but I do like Harold Ford.

Don't think he's ready now, but when Alexander retires, he should try it again.

 

Too bad Ford wasn't running here in Chicago. We elect the progeny of tainted politicians all the time.

/bitter because my Congressman is Dan Lipinski, installed by his dad and former seatholder Bill in post-election chicanery, and my soon-to-be county board president is Todd Stroger, installed by the county Democratic machine controlled by his ailing father and former seatholder John in post-primary chicanery.