Detroit's population falls 25 percent in 10 years

The Big Ragu · Mar 23, 2011

I didn't mean to sidetrack the thread. Others are forcing me to respond. I meant it as an example as how a place can be revitalized and changed in character in huge ways in a short time when private developers come in and see potential. I didn't mean to suggest that a small neighborhood is the same exact thing as the city of Cleveland.

LongTimeListener · Mar 23, 2011

Regardless of what street delineates what neighborhood, the fact remains that there were tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people looking for a way to live in or near Manhattan, and the DUMBO development succeeded because of that surplus demand. The area of a few square miles might have been abandoned for the time being, but the metropolitan area was growing huge and there was a constant and growing need for housing. There are nowhere near as many people -- on a proportional or any other basis -- looking to live in or near Detroit or Cleveland or any other Rust Belt town.

The Big Ragu · Mar 23, 2011

derwood said:

My point is it is relatively easy to transition an area from light industrial to upper income residential in New York City, in Detroit it is impossible.
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Why I said in my post (please go back and reread) that I didn't think it would be easily possible in Detroit.

derwood · Mar 23, 2011

Starman said:

Richie-Rich Snyder is putting the heat on municipal governments to cut to the bone and way way beyond. Bascially, he's washing his hands of the whole mess.

The recent discussion of 60+ students per class in Detroit public schools is all part of the process. Next year, it'll be 100+ students per class. The logical conclusion is that anyone with kids in Detroit should get the hell out unless they can already afford to send the kids to private schools.

Where should they go? Snyder doesn't give a shit as long as it's out of his hair. Other regions of the state aren't in much better shape, so the only conclusion is get the hell out of the state and go south where there might be jobs. Snyder is just fine with that -- he can slash the social services budgets accordingly and some other states will have to worry about these unwashed hordes.

In the 2020 census, Detroit will have 500,000 residents. At most.
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60 - 100 kids in class. Is that legal?

Azrael · Mar 23, 2011

Pittsburgh is a better example of a 'Rust Belt' success story.

It had the advantage of a slightly more diverse economy, however. What saved it after the steel business collapse was a mix of tech and medicine - all of which were part of a very rich university environment.

Not sure that Detroit or Cleveland or the others named can manage the same trick.

dreunc1542 · Mar 23, 2011

If there's no real similarities between the two, though, then what real point does it have on this thread? Transforming a decaying city is a completely different project. It's great that DUMBO was transformed and all, but using an example of a whole city being overhauled would be better.

While Pittsburgh's population continues to decline, I think the job that's been done there to revitalize it is more relevant for discussion purposes on this thread.

Edit: Az beat me to that thought.

Baron Scicluna · Jan 1, 2015

JackReacher said:

The Big Ragu said:

Bob, What I am talking about is a private developer or two with a lot of vision. This is not quite the same thing, but it will give an idea about what I am talking about. There is a neighborhood in Brooklyn, in New York that is hot beyond belief, called DUMBO. It is right on the water, between the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges and can have you in Manhattan in 5 to 10 minutes, so it is well situated. Plus it has great skyline views. For years it was kind of dingy. Old abandoned warehouses, some from the 1800s. It still has old cobblestone streets and trolley tracks going through certain areas. And has this odd, but cool, industrial / modern potential vibe. You just had to envision it, and no one really did. Then about 15 to 20 years ago, a single developer with deep pockets came in and essentially bought the whole neighborhood up. He attracted a few artists, who had always lived there, and then started attracting some small businesses with a creative bent -- a couple of decent video production houses and rap artists moved in -- and some small boutique shops and eventually art galleries. Living there was still relatively cheap. And the neighborhood took on this whole new character. At the same time, the city and state governments really started to develop the waterfront, which had been neglected and turning it into beautiful park area. A lot of it was done (albeit with payoffs, which disgust me) with the help of the influence of the Walentas' (the developers). Then they started converting some of these old, solid buildings into lofts and attracting people getting priced out of Manhattan (at the time, a lot of people were fleeing Manhattan and Brooklyn was becoming hot). And then they started tearing down some of what they owned, and building high rises with multi-million dollar apartments. They were unencumbered by the preservation people that lord over the neighborhoods surrounding Dumbo, so had picked the perfect place. Today the neighborhood is thriving and has this great vibe. Restaurants, art galleries, a warehouse theater, a performance art space, the coolest indie bookstore around and lots of interesting businesses, although rents have gone way up. It took a lot of vision for the Walentas' to pull that off, and to an extent they are reviled (but I chalk some of that up to jealousy, even though some of it is that they are not above paying off politicians to expedite getting what they want). And all it took was someone with deep pockets and that vision. And most importantly, done privately -- which gives incentive to pull it off. Profit incentive.
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Is anyone expected to read that? How 'bout some talking points or something, huh?

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Or

at

least

break

it

up

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a

few

paragraphs.

Brian · Mar 23, 2011

I've always figured it will take until the Baby Boomers are no longer receiving entitlements for the Rust Belt to recover. That's, what, 30-35 years from now? Plenty of water, governments will be so cash-strapped they'll bend over backwards on taxes and labor will be as cheap as it was, relatively, in the Sunbelt in the 1970s and 1980s.

The Big Ragu · Mar 23, 2011

dreunc1542 said:

If there's no real similarities between the two, though, then what real point does it have on this thread? Transforming a decaying city is a completely different project. It's great that DUMBO was transformed and all, but using an example of a whole city being overhauled would be better.

While Pittsburgh's population continues to decline, I think the job that's been done there to revitalize it is more relevant for discussion purposes on this thread.

Edit: Az beat me to that thought.
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Because I see the model working the same way. As I said in my first post. Of course there are some differences, given what surrounds the areas. But you could go into those cities and buy whole swatches of buildings, some with great industrial and loft potential -- for nothing. You can own whole neighborhoods for very little. If it's a small part of your portfolio, in which you don't need immediate return, with a bit of revitalization and incentives with cheap rents (for a safe, hip neighborhood), you can attract small businesses, and when you do that, residential will follow. I see the similarity being that. Again, as I thought I laid it out in that first post. The investment would be cheap beyond anything. You can buy whole neighborhoods for next to nothing. The potential return on investment if you can do some development and attract something is enormous. To be successful it would require someone with vision. Not quite creating Las Vegas out of nothing vision, though, because there is some serious infrastructure already there.

Brian · Mar 23, 2011

I'd say Dan Gilbert, but I don't think a guy who peddles sub-prime mortgages and chooses Comic Sans is what I'd call visionary.

Bob Cook · Mar 23, 2011

Ragu -- I understand that it would be much better if a private developer went into Cleveland, Detroit, Youngstown, et al, but they aren't coming, and that's why the government has stepped in. For the municipal government, the strategy is about, initially cost savings. No need to spend so much on maintaining infrastructure and providing police and fire protection if you can knock down the houses and get people more tightly situated. Anyway, a lot of these already do have some small, hip areas, but they are just that -- small. They can help turn around a neighborhood, but not an entire city. Plus, you need some assurance that real estate values will go up, and this economy, that's just not going to happen. Maybe some speculators will buy up some land and sit on it for a long while, but it's going to be a long, long while.

The Big Ragu · Mar 23, 2011

Bob, I get that. You can't force that kind of action.

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Detroit's population falls 25 percent in 10 years

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