Could The Dark Knight be the biggest opening ever?

Americans are suckers for anything that can be measured numerically. See also the obsession with lists.

 

And the contempt for soccer. Not enough stats.

 

Hey, we have time of possession and everything. We even track how far each player runs.

 

I'll be there.




Holmes-For-Gyllenhaal was the best trade of the offseason.

 

Batman Begins clinched that; anything was better than Tim Burton's trips into hell

 

Depends on factors. This is more or less down to a science at this point, so much so that a game exists (HSX) to predict such things, and you can be on the right side of it 70-75% of the time if you know your stuff.

Factors include:

Number of theaters (really the biggest thing)

Film's rating (No. 2)

Length of film (Can an extra screening be squeezed in based on running time?)

Advertising (what stations, effectiveness)

Release date (can't be around a holiday, tends to be early in the summer, not late, can't be swallowed by a hit movie, weather on the East Coast has to be perfect)

And finally…the studio/producers got to want the record and be willing to sacrifice quality to do it.

Studios' distribution departments attempt to bully theater owners (or chains) into giving more screens to a given movie. They'll do more than you think ("Cinemark, if you don't put Blockbuster A on 4 screens in Toledo movie theater X, forget Art Movie B - even if it does well in Toronto! We'll send it to AMC in Toledo instead!")

To get the all-time mark, you've more or less got to get 4,200 screens with a 36,000 per screen average. Spider-Man 3 has it at 151 million, and that movie had to sacrifice arguably the franchise to get it; Venom was not supposed to be in S-M 3, but he is, and his inclusion generated that extra 30 million dollars of interest. But the movie felt rushed, redundant, and just wasn't very good. The previous record holder, POTC 2, has built-in advantages of being made by Disney, which has a family of networks it can use as a pimp.

The screens can be had under certain conditions, but the PSA is more…mercurial. Often, it's linked to advertising, merch tie-ins, etc. It would be, simply, astonshing to do so. But it's possible. A July 17th opening, especially if a lot of movies until that point aren't very good…there's a chance.

Narnia will have a better stab at it.

And forget Indy 4, no matter how good it is - Lucas requires technical specs in theaters that knock out about 500-600 screens nationwide.

 

It'll be close. Indy 4 will likely have 500-600 less screens

 

Mucas was adamant about the Star Wars films and theater specifications because those were his baby, and the whole digital filming thing and the fact it was STAR WARS enabled him to be anal about it.

Indiana Jones is also Spielberg's baby. Will they really have the same specifications?

Either way, it's delightful that, after the dismal 1990s, we have summers like this one. No "Independence Day" or "Godzilla" in the bunch.

Also: great point on the length of movie. There have been many films which the studio asked be cut in order to facilitate more daily showings.

 

Well, Lucas wrote the story and Lucasfilm is one of four production companies involved.

Paramount is the American distributor, though, so I'm not sure how much power he has over which theaters it's in. I assume not much. Good question, though.

 

Awesome post! Thanks Alma.

 

Two questions:

1) When was the last time an summer/action blockbuster was in serious Oscar talk, as far as Best Actor/Actress, Supporting, Director, etc...

2) Does TDK have the potential to provide the necessary performances.

I've never gotten in line to see a movie on its premier before, but I think I might have to pop that cherry this July.

 

1) I believe the last time was Johnnny Depp's nod for "Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl" in 2003.

2) Who's to say before it's out?