College football Week 6 thread

Rutgers is the only school in the Big14 where the TV cameras don’t pan the student section for hot girls. Waste of effort

 

Nubs acting like they won the AFC title with their reaction after squeaking by Northwestern at home says everything you need to know about that program of late.

 

Only reason I was rooting for Florida was to get them as high in the polls since I will be at the LSU-Florida game next Saturday night

 

This is a great way to watch a game, from the skycam with no PBP or color, just the play and sounds of the stadium PA and fans and fighting spirt of the bands.

SkyCam-#3 Georgia vs. Tennessee (Football)

 

For me, it seems like everything has been a struggle.
Played five games today that I felt good about. LSU-Utah State over (not even close), Oklahoma State -10 at Texas Tech (a straight up debacle), Oklahoma -33 at Kansas (Sooners briefly got over the number, then gave up a couple of scores with the game in hand), Texas -10 at West Virginia (covered, but barely), and Georgia -25 at Tennessee (WTF, Georgia? Blow these assholes out already).
The NFL has been just as bad. Lost two covers in the last minute of games and another when a team didn't score an offensive touchdown. Nailed the Bears-Redskins Monday nighter but even had to sweat that out after it was 28-0 at one point.
That's the real struggle part. Even the games I've gotten right I've had to sweat, and some of the ones where my instincts were right didn't win. It messes with your head and makes you start second-guessing everything you're doing. I don't want to shut it down halfway through the season, but my modest gambling budget is taking a beating.

 

The state of the Tennessee football program in 2019 in a nutshell, right here.
They don't lay a hand on a blitzing defender, who almost literally breaks the quarterback in half (he went to the sideline with an apparent rib injury and collapsed before being helped to the medical tent).
They do, however, manage to put their own vicious tackle on the referee.

 

Oregon State absolutely smokes UCLA. No more billionaire owner, no more street agents, real admission standards. If Chip can't cheat, Chip can't win.

 

Refs overlook blatant, jersey-stretching hold by a Nebraska DB on the decisive interception. Big Ten refs are almost as bad as Pac-12 refs, and that is saying something.

 

Pac12 doesn't belong in the playoff discussion - that's pretty clear. The games have been pretty fun to watch. I really don't know if there is a "best" team in the conference. Seems to change every week.
And yeah - I would have thought Chip would have had something going by now in Westwood.

I don't know what the deal is with U-dub. Petersen should have that program on rails by now, but his only bowl win in Seattle is a Heart of Dallas win. And it doesn't look like they be anything special this year.

 

Agree with a lot of this. I see a lot of heavy favorites. Careful with those. (Oregon burned me this week).

The short favorites have killed me all year (Kansas State today). I look for spots where teams are looking ahead to the next game (Oklahoma and Texas) or if they’re in the middle of 2-3 long road games.

In 2017, I made a good profit for the first time. Last year, I essentially hit .400 in college with a 34-11 tear over a six-week stretch.

But the game is changing. Freshmen QBs now come in with more and better experience — this means more research to learn which ones could be good right away. Used to be just look at the returning starters and if the QB was decent and ride that out.

Also look at the ATS records. SMU finally didn’t cover - only reason I took Tulsa. But Vandy still hasn’t covered and that’s becoming a problem for me.

 

Last year I picked up on a couple of trends -- Alabama covering the first-half spread in the first two-thirds of the season, and Rutgers' awesome ATS run in the last third -- and did pretty well. Betting those allowed me to cover my nut every week, and then find some good three-team parlays to profit off of every other week or so. Out of 11 weeks of college football (I started in Week 2), I probably only had one or two where I didn't cash a winning ticket.
This year, I can't find that sure thing every week. It seems like there's a lot more wild fluctuations from one week to the next, not as many consistent teams, and when an obvious favorite misses a cover they really miss a cover, like Clemson last week or Oklahoma State today. Or bad teams like Texas Tech and West Virginia suddenly find their nuts and play somebody tough. We're six weeks in and I haven't had a profitable week yet. Just two or three where I broke even.
Guess I just need to dive into it a little better. Every game is a winner if you find the right side of it, you just have to figure out which one it is.