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College Football Week 12: This won't be the first time Kenjon Barner burns trees

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Versatile, Nov 12, 2012.

  1. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Cell phones: because say Mirage has Alabama -18 over A&M and Caesars has Alabama -16 1/2. They are constantly moving lines, and part of that operation is monitoring the other lines around town, so you have to be ahead of their self-detection and you need to have one guy in each spot to make the most advantageous bet. You probably only have five minutes to catch that discrepancy.

    So in the above scenario, you bet $110 to win $100 on each side. If Alabama wins by 17, you win $200. If Alabama wins by 18, you win $100. In any other scenario, you lose $10.
     
  2. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    Alabama won by 35. They were playing Auburn. You lost $10. Sorry.
     
  3. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    Very interesting.

    I may take the money I won by betting against the Bammers the last two weeks and give it a shot next time I see an opportunity.
     
  4. Stoney

    Stoney Well-Known Member

    Interesting stuff. So these guys are just roaming from casino to casino looking for spread discrepancies? Makes a ton of sense, but I think I'd need more than a point or two differential before I had the balls to try it. But this four point Stanford/Ore gap is custom made for the gambit. Bet a ton of the same folks who bet on Stanford at 24 are now doubling up on Ore at 20.
     
  5. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    Prediction: When Oregon allows two late touchdowns and wins by 21 instead of 35, someone (possibly in this thread) will claim Chip Kelly was points shaving.
     
  6. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    I don't think we're working with the right numbers on Stanford-Oregon. That -24 might have been the opening line according to LVSC, but no book actually uses that. I don't even know why it's there, to be honest.

    Here's a link to line movements of that game:

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/stanford-@-oregon.cfm/date/11-17-12

    The biggest discrepancy I could find is Oregon opened -23 at Wynn and eventually got down to -20.5 for a couple hours but is now holding steady at -21. But most places opened it at -21.

    Perfect example, though, of why cell phones are important: There was a longer time span involved, about an hour and a half, to get that -23 at Wynn and the +20.5 elsewhere. In Vegas, even an hour and a half is not enough time for a person working alone to check lines at all the competing places.
     
  7. Versatile

    Versatile Active Member

    As my OP states, Sportsbook.ag opened at -21.
     
  8. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Huh. Yeah it did. Where did 24 come from?
     
  9. I Should Coco

    I Should Coco Well-Known Member

    I know we all mock the lower-tier bowl games, but when conferences don't get in them, they forgo some money (and that's what college football is all about, after all!).

    So ... with that in mind, these "off the radar" games this weekend become important as down-on-their-luck leagues scramble to meet their allotment of bowl tie-ins:

    ACC
    (eight bowl slots, only four teams eligible)

    North Carolina (ineligible) at Virginia (4-6):
    Cavs must win tonight to make their annual tussle with Va. Tech a battle for bowl eligibility.
    Duke (6-4) at Georgia Tech (5-5): The Yellow Jackets need this one, because they finish out at Georgia. Next week's not a likely win, considering Tech got destroyed by 49-28 Mid Tennessee earlier this season.
    Virginia Tech (4-6) at Boston College (2-8): Anyone else enjoy seeing Beamer and Co. scramble to play in the Belk Bowl?
    Florida St. (9-1) at Maryland (4-6): Just listing this because pigs could fly, too.

    We also have Miami at 5-5, with games left at South Florida and vs. Duke, but I think the 'Canes are considering sitting out the bowl season again to ward off future/further NCAA sanctions.

    Big 10:
    (eight bowl slots, only five teams eligible)

    Northwestern (7-3) at Michigan State (5-5):
    Sparty still needs one more win, and if they don't get it here, it could happen at Minnesota next weekend. Key word is "could" ... this is Michigan State we're talking about.
    Purdue (4-6) at Illinois (2-8): The Boilermakers won a "loser out" game in Iowa City last week, and get their second of three straight I-school wins, er, games, this weekend.
    Iowa (4-6) at Michigan (7-3): Time for the Hawkeyes to make a run at the Little Caesar's Bowl. :D

    Pac-12
    (seven or eight bowl slots, depending on an extra BCS bid or not; seven teams eligible)

    Arizona (6-4) at Utah (4-6): The Utes need this one, then a win next week at Colorado. Certainly doable, although the "reward" is a likely berth in the Las Vegas or New Mexico bowls, where a fine team like Boise State awaits them.
    Washington St. (2-8) at Arizona St. (5-5): Lookin' good for the Sun Devils. If they slip up here, must beat Arizona next weekend.
     
  10. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    I remember seeing or hearing 24 earlier in the week, too. Can't remember where, though.

    But yeah. It's strange to see opening lines that far apart.
     
  11. Stoney

    Stoney Well-Known Member

    Appears to have begun with Chef.
     
  12. Chef2

    Chef2 Well-Known Member

    Bold below is where it opened.

    link to it.

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

    11/17 8:00 PM
    367 Stanford
    368 Oregon
    66u-10
    -24 -10

    65u-10
    -20½ -10
    65u-10
    -20½ -10
    65u-10
    -20½ -10
    65½u-10
    -20½ -10
    65u-10
    -21 -10

    -20½ -10
    65½u-10
    -20½ -10
    65u-10
    -20½ -05
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 1, 2015
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