College Football 2015 Week 4 thread

Betting against my team sure worked last week, but I can't tell what conference play will bring, so I gotta leave it alone. Looking at the lineup, just too many sketchy games; going to have to leave the money in my pocket.

 

They need another QB named Munchie Legaux.

 

Circling back on whoever said Tuberville hasn't done shit at Cincinnati, he's 18-8 in two years there (9-4 both years).

That might get you fired from Nebraska, but I'm sure the Bearcat faithful are just fine with the job Tubs is doing.

 

Feels like a pretty weak slate of games. Nothing really jumps out as the "can't miss" game. Or maybe I'm comparing to last week that had several. Tennessee/Florida will be interesting, but doesn't do much as far as relevancy is concerned.

Am I glossing over a good one?

 

TCU at Texas Tech is suddenly very interesting.

 

Love Tennessee and the number.

Saw Memphis jump to -10 which feels high for a Thursday night game at home. I think they'll win but that's a big number.

BGSU feels like the perfect trap spread.

And yes take Rutgers and give 13. The betting public still hasn't caught up with how terrible Kansas is.

 

The four games in question -- UConn, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Wagner -- ain't exactly must-see TV. Missouri is the one ranked (for now) team scheduled to visit Provo.

Take Oregon State to cover. Stanford has to turn around and head to Corvallis, a tough place to play as it is, on a short week. Kevin Hogan may not even play because of the injured ankle. Redshirt freshman Keller Chryst may start in his place, weeks after David Shaw said there was "no clear backup" at QB.

 

Wanna make some money? Lay the points on A&M.

And at Cincinnati, few people give a shit what the football team's record is. Big time basketball school.

 

I'd be hesitant on A&M only because Arkansas hasn't covered yet. Teams very rarely are outside the range of 4-8 to 8-4 ATS. Same for Missouri. They've not covered against Arky St and UConn.

For the disciplined gamblers with a robust bankroll, I think one could pick 40 college football teams in week 1 and bet the same amount on each. Let's say $50 on each.

Even if you go 16-24, take the 24 teams that lost ATS and bet on them on week 2 but multiply the Week 1 bet by 2.2x (that covers the vig).

If you go 13-11, take the 11 losers in Week 3 and multiple by 2.2 again. Repeat until you've won on all 40 teams.

In roulette, the ball can land on black 12 times in a row.

In college football, no one goes 0-12 ATS. Last year Oregon State and UConn were 2-10 ATS, Florida State was 3-11. Everyone else was at least 4-8.

 

ECU +8 looks rather juicy.

 

Yes.

 

An EDIT on how the system works so far in 2015. (Note: I did not put any money on this system -- perhaps I should have considering the games I did put actual USD On this year).

Week 1. I picked 40 college football games against the spread. I didn't care about the spread as much as I walked to pick STRONG teams with good offenses. Went 23-17. That would have been $2,000 in play (40x$50). 23 winners = $2,196.50 (each winner pays $95.50). Week: PLUS $196.50

Week 2. 17 games to pick, all with the teams that I lost with on Week 1. It's automatic - you simply take those teams that lost for you and do not move off of them. Went 8-9. 17 games at $110 each (2.2x$50 from Week 1). Total in play: $1870.00 Eight winners = $1680.80 WEEK: MINUS $189.20

Week 3. 9 teams in play but only 8 games to pick (Note: Baylor (0-2) has a bye... so that messes with the system a bit. I'll carry Baylor over to Week 4 but at the Week 3 betting level). Again, go with the teams that you've ridden out 0-2 with. For me, Oklahoma State, Wyoming, Boise State and Penn State all covered. Arizona State, Michigan State, Auburn, Missouri did not. Eight games at $242 each. Went 4-4. Total in play: $1,936. Four winners: $1,848.88. WEEK: MINUS $87.12

Week 4. 5 teams in play. Baylor at $242 and Aubie, Sparty, Mizzou and ASU at $532.40 each. Total in play: $2371.60 Total PLUS/MINUS at this point: (-$79.82). If they all win: $4,529.76. Profit of: $2,449.94 ($4,449.94 - $2,000 initial).

For this week, it would be: Mizzou +3 at Kentucky, Auburn -3 vs. Cowbell, Arizona St +5.5 vs USC, Michigan State (-27) vs CMU (that opened at -31), Baylor (-34.5) vs. Rice.

Will all five of them cover in Week 4? Unlikely.

Yet I think it's more likely a bettor would go 5-0 this week than 0-5. The betting public will overreact by looking at the scores with each week. Mizzou, Arizona State and Michigan State, I feel, are particularly good value. Could even see Auburn being a pick 'em by kickoff because they've been so bad.

I am nearly certain all five will cover once in the next three weeks.

Ever since I was 11, I've been looking for an "edge" on college football betting. (I was a nerd who used to write BASIC computer programming to try and predict games based on factors of returning starters, weather and home field.)

Thirty years later, this is the closest I think I've come to beating the system. I would love to live in Las Vegas - or better yet, live here with it legalized - and try this out for a season.