College football 2013 running discussion thread

Puzzled...

The Iowa-Northern Illinois line has slid to Iowa -2.5 after opening at -6. That is so damn tempting to jump on. I think the Hawks will be garbage this year but I could see them winning by 3, 4 or 7. But I loved NIU at +6 but not as much as +2.5.

Prices I like...
Washington State +15 at Auburn. Leach enters year two against a first year coach running a new system. I often look for the "experienced QB/coach vs first year coach" for September.

Colorado State -2 vs Colorado. Love the Rams in this one for the same variables.

N'western -6 at Cal. Again, experience vs a new coach. NW tends to get into shootouts in September non-con games and that makes me nervous.

 

Straight lines are really tricky. Look for the overs.

 

Cal has always played its "marquee" nonconference home game very well, even in years it has gone on to suck balls. I wouldn't bet them necessarily, but I wouldn't bet against them either. It's a stay-away.

 

Yeah, forgot about the Rutgers move.

That could be an opportunity to re-open that pipeline but with Nebraska and Rutgers in opposite divisions, Nebraska won't be able to sell the "homecoming" game angle the way they could with Texas kids in their Big 12 era.

 

More lines: the big numbers chapter:

Oregon -58 1/2 v. Nicholls St.

Tennessee - 51 v. Let's Go Peay.

Could see Oregon roll past the number with their pinball machine offense.

Hard to see Tennessee being 51 points better of anyone based on recent history.

 

You are right that things have changed the past generation or so. There are a handful of players coming out of the plains states with legit talent to be a difference maker at that level and Osborne used to be able to snag them all and then use the greyshirt program to get in-state kids on campus hitting the weights (and let's be real, steroids too) and in a few years he had some good linemen and fullbacks.

Linemen are so huge and mobile these days that kind of recruiting doesn't work anymore. You got to get kids with NFL bodies and convince you can teach them NFL skills. Nebraska's linemen didn't even really have to learn how to pass block back in the day.

You mentioned Kansas basketball and it is similar in that Roy Williams and now Bill Self have been able to take just about any in-state or KC kid they wanted. They passed on several who were nice players elsewhere, but there have been quite a few contributors that were local products down through the years. Wayne Simien is the only in-state All-American I can think of though in the post-Larry Brown era.

 

Yeah, I snickered.

 

I would say football and basketball recruiting are fundamentally different. Football rosters are generally far more regional than basketball rosters.

Football players just seem way more likely to "stay home," or close to it, than basketball players. I don't know this, but I suspect the trend may be just the opposite of basketball. It seems like football players are more likely to stay close to home than in the 80s, mainly because back then, the southern black player was far more likely to leave the region and its segregationist recent past. Nowadays, these guys stay home and play in the SEC or the ACC.

 

Nine months away, and like the children of Israel, everybody's memory goes to shit. There is a new thread every week. And Versitile always starts the thread. Period. Full stop.

That said, I have been informed by the pxp guy that Wake Forest begins a crucial stretch of its schedule tonight. The Deacons open with mighty Presbytarian.

 

Basketball is also travel-team centric so kids are used to going away from home to play.

 

Heels D just tripped on their live dicks. 7-0 Cocky.

 

Seven National Championships!

Just sayin'



(I was alive for one, so I got that going for me)