Clayton Kershaw: Hall of Famer?

More Kershaw -- I know it's a dangerous game to start plucking out the bad starts, but in this case there is one that sticks out like a sore thumb: May 17, 7 ER in 1 2/3 IP at Arizona.

Without that start, his ERA would be 1.22.

 

I just wonder how far we are from getting to the point where pitchers are evaluated a lot differently for the HOF than they were in the past.

 

Three generations of baseball writers (70s, 80s, 90s) will need to give up their votes (because of age or passing from this mortal coil) before pitchers can truly be evaluated differently. The winners wins aspect is too ingrained.

 

Watched Kershaw in person Sat. night; with a 2 hitter, he was no doubt fantastic. He was sitting at 93-94; but strangely off a bit on the control; Giants got some good hitting counts then fouled off the good pitches. He's IMHO either the best or #2 (King Felix) right now.

Is he a HOF'er this early? All I can say is be patient. The Freak was on that track up to 2011 (went 13-14 but was still firing bullets) then strangely lost his velocity and is nearly just another guy now. Not saying Kershaw is going to lose it that fast; he's bigger, has better control, so I don't thinks so but you never know. With only 90 or so wins, I'm not ready to enshrine him just yet. Look at the other guys who started fast, you just never know.

 

Agreed. Pedro is probably fine, but I think some of these pitchers who may have several great seasons, but have fewer than 250 wins may have trouble getting in. I have no idea how voters will treat someone like Johan Santana.

 

300 wins won't be the benchmark for long. It might not be 250. Guys who start getting in will be those with, say, 201 wins but insanely great SABR numbers. If Kershaw pitches 12 years -- no major injuries or lost time -- and wins 5 straight ERA titles and has 4 CYAs, but only 152 wins, will he be kept out?

 

Probably?

 

Assuming he wins 20 this year and wins the Cy Young, if he averaged 11 wins for five more seasons to get to 152. That would give him three Cy Youngs and one runner-up finish. I don't know how you could keep him out.

 

I agree that this type of dominance is what defines a HOF'er (assuming he gets 4 CYs).

When I see Felix put out one dominating performance after another and he gets a ND; I root for him to get the win because its a shame to see him end up with NDs; does anyone else root for guys to get rewarded for their starts?

 

It's interesting to note that excluding Negro Leaguers and relievers, since 1991 the BBWAA has elected just one pitcher with less than 300 career wins (Bert Blyleven), and that was only after a MASSIVE grass roots campaign.

1992 --- Tom Seaver (311)
1994 --- Steve Carlton (329)
1997 --- Phil Niekro (318)
1998 --- Don Sutton (324)
1999 --- Nolan Ryan (324)
2011 --- Bert Blyleven (287)
2014 --- Greg Maddux (355)
2014 --- Tom Glavine (305)

Curt Schilling is more than qualified to be a Hall of Famer based on the standards of those already elected. Mike Mussina probably is, too, but for whatever reason the voters are still applying the aforementioned "winners win" mentality in Hall of Fame voting.

Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez will deservedly cruise into Cooperstown, but recent history doesn't bode well for those guys who are currently active.

 

Dale Murphy is not sure.

 

Verlander is in almost the same position as Jack McDowell when his career fell off the end if the table - so, no.
He needs another CY-level season, plus another couple of seasons well above league average , to lock it down. If he pitches 8 more years at. 500, he'll be in the Hall of Pretty Good.