Clayton Kershaw: Hall of Famer?

So ...

He has a good chance to win his third Cy Young Award this year.

He's about to win his fourth straight N.L. ERA title - and potentially his second straight with a sub-2.00 ERA.

He will probably get to 100 career wins some time early next year.

I'm not asking you to project 10 years into the future and determine whether he reaches the traditional benchmarks. I'm asking you, right now, how long does Kershaw have to go before he basically qualifies for the Koufax exemption? At what point can he blow his shoulder out, never pitch again, and still get his plaque in Cooperstown?

I don't think he's there yet. I also don't think he's as far away as you might think at first. Koufax did it with five dominant seasons - front-ended by some seasons as an absolute average N.L. starter.

Would we punish Kershaw because he wasn't average for five years first? That seems strange.

It's interesting to think about ...

 

This would be his 2nd in a row, 3rd overall.

Dickey won it 2 years ago.

 

Corrected that sentence.

 

Ask Johan Santana.

 

Five years of average is more productive than five years of nothing. That isn't penalizing Kershaw. That is crediting Koufax.

Also, I assume you meant that Kershaw on his way to a fourth consecutive ERA title, not a fourth consecutive NL Cy Young title.

 

I wonder if Koufax would have gotten in had he had, say, one or two seasons of average, followed by his five-year run, like Kershaw has. Does he get in? I have no idea.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml

 

If Kershaw retired tomorrow, he'd get in in five years. Easily. He's the best pitcher of our era.

 

Now Dick's back.

And yes, enough years to qualify and he is in. I posted this on MLB thread, he is three scoreless innings away from having the second-lowest ERA of any pitcher since 1920 (minimum 1,000 IP). The only one lower is Rivera.

 

Shit, I guess I wasn't thinking about that. He has to throw a pitch in 2017.

Kershaw is going to be making his speech in Cooperstown while a few hundred miles south, the Nationals are going to still be protecting the arm of his fellow Born-in-'88er.

 

With 89 career wins?

 

He is two months away from his third Cy Young Award.

He gets that, and all he has to do is show up for work the next three years and he's in.