Changes to baseball Hall of Fame voting

I didn't think of this before either but it came to me while reading Tom Verducci's piece on the topic today.

I think the Hall is going to change the Vet Committee process by dropping the Pre-Integration Committee after the next time they meet. Based on the last voting, Bill Dahlen is going to get elected and then you can argue the era at this point has basically been picked over to the point that they could just alternate between the Golden Era and the Expansion Era from now on.

The last Pre-Integration Era ballot had guys like Bucky Walters and Marty Marion being considered.

That way you would be dealing with the Expansion Era guys falling off the ballot and being eligible sooner and creating strong Vet ballots to pick from so that you could probably pick a guy every time from the Expansion ballot going forward.

 

Along the lines of Della's thoughts...here are the existing/upcoming candidates (followed by the maximum term the BBWAA may consider them). Active players' eligibility dates are estimated based on a combination of age/contract/performance.

Bobby Abreu (2020-29)
Jeff Bagwell (2015-20)
Carlos Beltran (2022-31)
Adrian Beltre (2024-33)
Lance Berkman (2019-28)
Craig Biggio (2015-22)
Barry Bonds (2015-22)
Mark Buehrle (2025-34)
Roger Clemens (2015-22)
Carlos Delgado (2015-24)
Jim Edmonds (2016-25)
Nomar Garciaparra (2015-24)
Jason Giambi (2020-29)
Ken Griffey Jr. (2016-25)
Vladimir Guerrero (2017-26)
Roy Halladay (2019-28)
Todd Helton (2019-28)
Trevor Hoffman (2016-25)
Matt Holliday (2024-33)
Tim Hudson (2022-31)
Torii Hunter (2023-32)
Derek Jeter (2020-29)
Randy Johnson (2015-24)
Andruw Jones (2018-27)
Chipper Jones (2018-27)
Jeff Kent (2015-23)
Cliff Lee (2026-35)
Edgar Martinez (2015-19)
Pedro Martinez (2015-24)
Victor Martinez (2022-31)
Don Mattingly (2015)
Fred McGriff (2015-19)
Mark McGwire (2015-16)
Mike Mussina (2015-23)
Joe Nathan (2021-30)
David Ortiz (2022-31)
Roy Oswalt (2019-28)
Andy Pettitte (2019-28)
Mike Piazza (2015-22)
Jorge Posada (2017-26)
Tim Raines (2015-17)
Aramis Ramirez (2023-32)
Manny Ramirez (2017-26)
Mariano Rivera (2019-28)
Alex Rodriguez (2023-32)
Ivan Rodriguez (2017-26)
Scott Rolen (2018-27)
Jimmy Rollins (2024-33)
Curt Schilling (2015-22)
Gary Sheffield (2015-24)
Alfonso Soriano (2022-31)
Lee Smith (2015-17)
John Smoltz (2015-24)
Sammy Sosa (2015-22)
Ichiro Suzuki (2020-29)
Mark Teixeira (2024-13)
Miguel Tejada (2019-28)
Jim Thome (2018-27)
Alan Trammell (2015-16)
Chase Utley (2024-33)
Omar Vizquel (2018-27)
Billy Wagner (2016-25)
Larry Walker (2015-20)

Given the bottleneck, there will be fewer first-ballot inductees than "usual", leaving only Randy Johnson (2015), Pedro Martinez (2015), Ken Griffey, Jr. (2016), Vladimir Guerrero (2017), Jim Thome (2018), Mariano Rivera (2019), and Derek Jeter (2020). And some of those might not even make it on the first try (most specifically Guerrero or Thome).

Quite a few players who might otherwise get above the 5% minimum on their first try will fail due to the ballot glut. This is not to suggest that a Magglio Ordonez or Paul Konerko would be worthy of election, but a decade ago these sorts of players were hanging around the ballot a few times before dropping off due to the dearth of better qualified candidates. Of course, that didn't stop some of those better-qualified candidates (e.g. David Cone) from failing to garner 5%, it just means that keeping one's head above water will be much more difficult over the next decade than it was in the previous one.

The rule change practically kills the possibility of any candidate growing a consensus over time as it cuts that potential timeframe by one-third. What will result, particularly during this Bottleneck Era of Hall voting, will be fewer guys in the > 75% range and fewer guys in the 5-20% range. All this change does is usher the PED suspects, in particular, out the back end of the ballot quicker. Sosa leaves this year, McGwire next (if he's not abandoned now by supporters who see the writing on the wall). There is zero chance a Pettitte or Tejada or Giambi stick around much (if at all).

It's pretty obvious that, by design, this is what the Board of Directors wants. They're going to get what they want. The unintentional result, however, is that those in the middle will be more crowded and the Expansion Era Committee - already doing a poor job of selecting worthy players - will have an enormous number to review once this generation of ballplayers has been jettisoned by the BBWAA.

One can only hope that the likely composition of the VC in a generation, presumably stacked with Hall of Famers from the 1990s and 2000s, would be kinder to their contemporaries than the writers. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

Wow, that person estimates A-Rod playing for three more seasons?

 

The Veterans Committee was going to have a burden to put in expansion guys anyway because there are too many qualified candidates. It only becomes bigger.

The consensus building is gone as long as the much older guard is voting. Anyone who doesn't start above 25 percent is in trouble.

 

My understanding is that A-Rod's contract runs through 2017 and I doubt the Yankees will release him so long as he can still play above replacement level. He has been adamant about being ready to play in 2015. He'll certainly be overpaid over the next three years, but I don't see him quitting or being cut before at least playing one game in the '17 season.

 

The important question is whether BBWAA members are adhering to the dress code.