Canadian Politics: Justin Trudeau to run for leadership of the Liberal Party

No, but I've been voting since the Mike Pearson days.

Theoretically the GG can, but without looking into my history books, I can't remember any reason other than a non confidence vote that a GG has dissolved Parliament. And I mean dissolving as opposed to just proroguing a Parliament like our buddy Steve did a while back to avoid, you know, democracy and shit.

 

Parliament can be dissolved on a vote of non-confidence. The most common example (in a minority government) is a vote against a government's budget. If defeated, the government calls an election.

The thing about Candian politics is that we do NOT elect a government. We elect a Parliament and Parliament decides who will form the government. Naturally, if it's a majority government it''s straightforward but if the gov doesn't have the confidence of the House, it is dissolved and the politicians go back to the people. Since we have more than two parties, a minority government is always possible and in my opinion, is kept in check better than a majority government, like Harper has now.

 

Poll suggests that Trudeau could make a big impact on the political landscape:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/on-day-of-leblanc-endorsement-poll-shows-trudeau-could-recreate-liberals/article4591559/


The poll says he would get “significant support” east of Manitoba, with 40 per cent of those surveyed in Ontario, 43 per cent in Quebec and 48 per cent in Atlantic Canada indicating they would be certain or likely to vote for the Liberals if Trudeau is leading the party.

If Trudeau can take back Quebec and win a majority of seats in Ontario, it'll be like the good old days!

 

Canadians out there, please help. My son asked me this.

What are the chances that the Liberals are permanently supplanted by the NDP as the party of the left? And, can the NDP build a base in Quebec where I guess until the last election they were a nonentity? Is the answer to the latter question the answer to the former?

 

I didn't know Ed Orgeron held office in Canada.

 

I'd say very little chance to all of the above. Depending on what the Liberals do in the next couple of years, the NDP may have one more term as the Opposition, maybe form a minority with the Liberals, but they're not there for the long haul. The Liberals are not going away, they have been wiped out, but much like the post-Mulroney/Campbell PC's they will come back in some form. The current Conservative Party of coure is not the same as the old PCs, but much of the membership base and politicians are. The Liberals need a revamping after the disasters of Dion and Iggy. And let's be honest, the Liberals still have 35 seats in the House of Commons, it's not liked they got shut out or knocked down to two seats like the PCs did in the early 90s. I don't think the NDP will ever come to power.

In Quebec I don't think that current base is there to stay, they basically got elected in because there was no other real option for them, they didn't trust the Conservatives and they were angry with the Liberals and the Bloc. With the Parti Quebecois regaining power provincially, it might mean there could be a comeback in the offing for the Bloc, but it all depends on how well they can rally the base and if their new leader Daniel Paille is actually competant. Quebec is a big motivation for the Trudeau movement in the Liberal Party, and I think he would do well as a prodigal son in that province.

My two cents anyway.

 

Yes, you're right although I'm not sure how frequent this has been in the last 135 years. I'll do some digging

 

Good analysis, Beef. The present Conservative Party has its roots in Preston Manning's Reform Party which turned into the Canadian Alliance Party who merged with the Progressive Conservative Party to form today's Conservative. And there's nothing progressive about these guys. So there's nothing that says the Liberal Party can't re-invent themselves either.

It's still way to early to figure out Trudeau's chances but if he gets some traction in Quebec, the NDP would return to being the Conscience Party.

I still wouldn't label either the NDP or Liberals as left wing, certainly not the NDP anymore although that's not how they'd probably be perceived in the US .

I like Mulcair a lot. He's smart, funny and fierce and knows that the NDP can never return to their David Lewis roots.

 

Thanks.

A couple more questions. With the PQ coming back how would the vote in Parliament if they in fact became the swing party?

And I remember in 1995 watching the last vote on separation. When the PQ lost one of their leaders, a burly guy who had been shown drinking in his sky box, came and blamed the immigrants in Montreal in what was a truly ugly speech. I would guess that the immigrant population in Quebec has grown a lot since then and that separation and has no chance of passing. Is my assumption correct?

 

You're assumptions are pretty correct.

Quebec easily has the most racist tendencies of any province in Canada. Outside of Montreal and the Eastern townships you find some very bass ackward thinking people who are very xenophobic.

Keep in mind that the leader of the party that is forming the minority government publicly said that she would like to see non French speakers not be allowed to hold public office. Any decent person finds this abhorrent but most Quebeckers just roll with it.

Quebec has a long history of racism, the incident you are referring to. Blamed monied Jews and immigrants for the referendum loss.

 

Ah, Jacques Parizeau, what a douchebag. Haven't thought of him in a looooog time. He of cource was replaced by Lucien Bouchard shortly thereafter.

How is Quebec now? no idea. I have been to quebec once, flew to Montreal for a week in 2003. Have no idea about the rest of the province, although I was warned before going there how I would be shunned because I can't speak French. Didn't find that at all. Didn't have any issues, felt like a very welcomign city. A very fun city at the least.

 

One of my motivations for taking high school French (all of which I've forgotten besides zut alors) was to be able to visit Quebec someday and perhaps even be able to understand a Canadiens broadcast. Language barrier or no, I've got to get cracking on that dream.