Can tropical systems be on the clear?

Early this morning there was a reasonably well-organized tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico. By 11 a.m. it was a depression. By 2 p.m. it was given the name Tropical Storm Humberto, and we were told by National Hurricane Center forecasters that while it'd give Houston a lot of rain, it wouldn't get a whole lot stronger.

14 hours later, their forecast has held up. Except the storm's heading more towards the Port Arthur area. And, oh yeah, it just became a hurricane. Didn't see that one coming.

They shouldn't be investigating global warming, they should be making the link between storms and Balco or Signature Pharmacy.

 

Pretty amazing.

Had been away from the TV since 11 AM today. Was watching Fox News and Janice Dean said the disturbance had a slim possibility to become a TD.

 

I spent all of yesterday in the football cone of silence. I didn't even know there was a tropical storm out there until I turned on the late news. And it's right down I-45 pretty much.

If Humberto had formed just 100 more miles offshore, it might've had time to strengthen into a high Cat 2 and everyone from Galveston to Port Arthur would have been totally caught napping.

 

Football cone of silence. Great term. Boy, can I relate.

My hometown, still not back to full speed after Rita, was on the bad side this morning when Humberto made landfall, yet my sister reports they're doing much better than she'd thought. In fact, we're going to get much more rain today than they will -- and possibly flood in the next 12-48 hours if the projected path rings true and it circles back our way and keeps dumping rain on us.

 

This is always encouraging to hear. From the National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. discussion for Humberto:

Also, two of the major computer models call for Humberto or its reminants to circle back into the Gulf. Nice to see the storm might return to the stage to play Free Bird.

 

Saw that quote in a wire story:

Humberto strengthened from a tropical depression with 35 mph winds to a hurricane with 85 mph winds in just 18 hours, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"To put this development in perspective -- no tropical cyclone in the historical record has ever reached this intensity at a faster rate near landfall. It would be nice to know, someday, why this happened," Franklin said.

And yeah, I'm a little concerned about it circling our way and back into the Gulf to recharge.

 

This raises a point: should the AP story mention that they got the quote from the 11 a.m. discussion posted on the NHC site? Without that, it looks like the writer actually talked to Franklin himself.

 

Don't look now ....









... but here comes Ingrid.

Looks like a fish storm now, but beware up East.

 

She's got a lot of dry air and shear in front of her, so her prospects are grim. Which is fine for the East Coast, though a tropical storm could spin a lot of much-needed rain this way. That's what people were hoping for from Gabby, but she didn't do much if you weren't in eastern North Carolina.

 

It's Bush's fault.