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BREAKING: US economy shrank at 2.9 percent annual rate in first quarter

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by YankeeFan, Jun 25, 2014.

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  1. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    As of 11:15 a.m. EDT, markets are up slightly at this catastrophic economic news.
     
  2. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The stock and bond markets have little relationship to the economy (or earnings, which are driven by the economy) anymore. They trade based on guesses about how much the Federal Reserve is going to debase the dollar to try to "stimulate" economic growth.

    Markets have gone through the roof the last few years (stocks way up, bond yields way low, driving up bond prices) because the Federal Reserve has its thumbs on the the scales of finance, as Jim Grant says. Markets have been factoring in that the Fed will keep the party rolling even longer by firing up the printing presses some more -- shitting on savers, who are the losers. Same failure of a playbook.

    As a result, we live in a world in which bad news is good news for the stock market (bad news means that the Fed is going to keep spiking the punch bowl), and any good news would be bad news.

    Of course, with three rounds of quantatitive easing in the books (the third still ongoing) and the Fed rigging the short and long-term interest rate markets, we never got the recovery from what happened in 2008 -- the stated reason for all of that action (the other reason is that if they let interest rates rise in a free market, our government can't afford its debt).

    What we have gotten is asset price inflation, among other things, but no trickle down economic recovery, they way they were praying for. Print more money, and it goes right into the stock market (and a bunch of other bubbled up assets). They have made the rich gricher, so they love it. The average person continues to suffer. Savers are punished.

    The markets have just been conditioned to assume even more of the insanity after 6 years. They will keep debasing the dollar, which might continue to be great for the stock market (until it inevitably ends badly, the way the housing bubble they created ended badly).
     
  3. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Just finished scanning a Merrill Lynch report attributing the drop to lower spending on health care by consumers. Isn't that supposed to be a good thing?
     
  4. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    That kind of ties in to the Myth of GDP, for generations something we have looked at as a benchmark of a country's wealth.

    But all kinds of not so good things go into GDP, including spending for health care.
     
  5. Bob Cook

    Bob Cook Active Member

    The decline in health spending is also due to more pressure being put on hospitals to stop making mistakes. For example, Medicare no longer paying for certain rehospitalizations within 30 days. As it turned out, hospitals were making a lot of money charging others to take care of the hospitals' own screwups.
     
  6. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    I laugh at how the media is eating up this bullshit about a harsh winter. As if there haven't been harsh winters before. And as if harsh winters don't lead to economic activities of their own, such as more spending to heat the home (energy producers must not be part of the economy), snowblowers, snowblower-repair shops, hardware stores (shovels, salt), private snowplow companies. And the global warming crowd was always so quick to point out that it was only about half the country having a harsh winter.

    The idea that a harsh winter caused a 2.9% contraction of the economy is so loaded with bullshit I can smell it from Washington all the way here in the midwest.

    The President of a Million Excuses.
     
  7. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Except no one -- well, no one with some reasonably sized fraction of a clue -- is saying the harsh winter caused a 2.9% reduction in GDP. What they're saying is that the harsh winter contributed to a first-quarter contraction that, if deseasonalized and then extended across an entire year*, would be 2.9%.

    *The phrase is "seasonally adjusted annual rate".
     
  8. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Don't let the facts get in the way of Tony's political cheerleading. The man is rooting for this country to falter and fail as much as possible simply because there is a Democrat in the White House. Unfortunately, far too many of the Republican politicians he roots for have the same attitude.
     
  9. old_tony

    old_tony Well-Known Member

    In case you haven't looked around, the country IS faltering. With your hero in charge. You don't notice, though, because you're the one doing the cheerleading.
     
  10. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    OK, let's look around.

    Unemployment January 2009: 7.8% (9 consecutive months of increase, and up from 4.2% when previous administration left office)

    Unemployment May 2014: 6.3% (down from 7.8%, when previous administration left office)

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Markets January 20, 2009: DJIA 7049, S&P 805, NASDAQ 1440

    Markets June 25, 2014: DJIA 16857, S&P 1959, NASDAQ 4379

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Now . . . IF the country is faltering --- maybe it is; I'm not making a statement one way or another --- what the fuck was it doing at the beginning of this administration?
     
  11. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    One, read BTE's post. Those darn facts keep tripping you up.

    Two, he's not my hero. Unlike you, I'm not rooting for bad things to happen to the country just because I don't care for the current President of the United States. That is the territory of political cheerleaders like you, who care nothing for the well being of the country or its citizens. You only care if your beloved party does well and things happen that you can blame on the other guys.

    Three, once again you violated the board policy against political discussion. This topic could be discussed without taking the thread down the toilet, but you just had to launch another attack on Obama, showing a blatant disrespect for the mods and the other members of SportsJournalists.com.
     
  12. Mark2010

    Mark2010 Active Member

    It was in the toilet. It crawled out of the toilet, but some believe that is only temporary. Time will tell.
     
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