Board Fav Pierce on Maddow Show

Gladwell's an interesting cat, his latest book "Outliers" concedes that much of success has more to do with built-in cultural advantages than with any "exceptionalism" of the individual.

 

A few months back we had a pretty good debate on his hockey player theory.

 

The hockey theory was never Gladwell's.

Anyone familiar with the game knew about it at least ten years before he wrote about it. And it's still a suspect theory to say the least.

 

Yes - Gladwell is clear that he is elaborating on Roger Barnwell's observation. The numbers are pretty convincing.

 

Coincidentally, I was just out with one of Pierce's college friends Friday night.

Based on his writing, I gather he's a hard-core liberal -- particularly the "Convince me" piece that was linked to here last year. But admitting the "idiots have won" in a year that Obama won the election and the Dems added to their majorities is a lot closer to the truth than I bet he understands.

 

Uh huh.

 

What are you implying?

 

Except you refer to it as "his hockey player theory" i.e. Gladwell's.

There's one big problem with the theory: it's blown all to bits when you look at the birth dates of some of hockey's superstars e.d. Mario Lemieux was born in October, the Baby Jesus in August, John Tavares (superstar in waiting) the end of September.

Our friend F0F wrote a very good piece on this about the time Gladwell's book came out. If I can find it, I'll post it.

 

My mistake JR . I should have been more specific. Actually there is a whole thread including FOF particpation in debate that proved inclonclusive either way.

 

Well, here's F0F's column from last December

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/2008/12/01/joyce_column_numbers/


The notion that the kid with a late birthday is at a physical disadvantage against a January-February-or-March kid applies to the middle of the pack, but the best kids will be playing a year or two ahead of what their birth certificates would dictate -- you could even mount the case that the late birthday might actually work in their favour sometimes, offer them opportunities for stiffer challenges earlier in their development. Talk to young players and their coaches and they’ll talk about "getting challenged." Well, playing slightly older kids -- we're talking by months -- is the next best thing to playing those a year or two older. To my mind, too many kids are pushed to play up, more than is appropriate, but there’s a reason they try: It works for the best of them.

 

When it comes to elite players Barnwell theory may not hold up but the numbers across the board in this years NHL are fairly convincing:

Jan/ Feb / Mar/ April 203 players

Sept / Oct/ Nov/ Dec 133 players

that is 100 more players born in Jan/ FeB/ Mar.

 

Um, Boom, that's 70 players, not 100.