Big Ten expansion

I think ND is irrelevant to what eventually happens to the Big 12. I'm beginning to think, though, that Mizzou and Nebraska are goners. What will become of the Big 12 then becomes the billion-dollar question.

 

I agree mb, and I think it will take Nebraska and a Big East team to force ND's hand. I believe a defection from a Big 12 and Big East team ends those conferences.

 

The Big East survived after losing Miami and Virginia Tech, and the Big 12 could survive Nebraska leaving -- especially with the Texas schools. Add TCU and Utah, if Mizzou leaves, and you're in decent shape.

 

It really could boil down to whether or not the Pac-10 wants to make a move. I think the Big 12 could survive losing Mizzouri and Nebraska. Add Colorado on top of it, though, and they'd be in pretty big trouble.

 

I think they could survive a Mizzou/Rutgers defection by replacing them with TCU in the Big 12, and someone like UCF or East Carolina in the Big East. Both conferences would be significantly weakened, but still viable.

But losing Nebraska would be just devastating. The Big 12 North is so weak already that it barely has credibility. If it loses its only traditional football power they'll have to tear the alignment apart and completely restructure. I suspect schools like Texas and Oklahoma might prefer fleeing to the SEC over life in a Nebraska-less Big 12.

 

You'd think that any conference with Texas and Oklahoma would be able to find a way to remain viable. It'll be interesting to see if Texas is willing to split conference money equally in order to keep the conference in tact.

 

Weak conferences will be left by the wayside. A weak Big 12 will get a TV contract with Versus. ESPN, ABC, CBS, maybe even NBC will pay for a second-tier game of a powerhouse conference than the marquee of a soft Big 12/Big East. I don't like it but the more we keep hearing about expansion, the more likely something is coming down and no BCS commissioner wants to be left without a chair.

 

Everything I've heard and read says Texas and A&M are tied at the hip, at least as far as the Texas legislature is concerned. Texas Tech would make a fine addition to the WAC or Mountain West.

@ mb: Actually, the domino that could make this all easy=peasey is Notre Dame. All it has to do is relent and join the Big 10 and all this goes away. The Big 10 has its championship game and there's no need for a nationwide reshuffle.

If Missouri and Nebraska do leave, the quickest fix for the Big 12 would be to move OU and Oklahoma State to the north and reload in the south. Whether they take the easy route (TCU, Houston, SMU, etc.) or make a gutsy move (Arkansas or another big-conference school) would then be the key. Considering Don Beebe will still be in charge of the conference, the smart money is on the former.

 

Factored out of the Big 12 talk is the fact that Colorado could bolt to the Pac 10 too.

 

Utah and Colorado to the Pac-10 to make it the Pac-12 is a pretty commonly-repeated possibility.

Adds two major media markets (SLC and Denver) to the Pac footprint. There are also rumors that a Pac-10 Network may be in the works in conjunction with Fox (who also backs the BTN).

 

And then the SEC would have to go to four, four-team divisions and two conferences to make any sort of sense of that mess, right?
You'd end up with something like this:
Western Conference, Plains Division: Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Western Conference, Gulf Coast Division: LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Florida State
Eastern Conference, Appalachian Division: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia
Eastern Conference, Southern Division: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
You play each team in your division (3 games), one "permanent" rival like they have now (preferably from the other conference), and then four opponents rotating on a two-year basis. You also add a second round of playoffs.

I'm not a fan of this, BTW. I like the 12 teams. It works, and works well. I just don't see how other options like an eight-team division would work in any feasible way. Maybe a 5-5-6 format could work, with a second round of playoffs and a wild-card team, but a 16-team league is damned unwieldy.

 

Arkansas will never leave the SEC. No SEC school would ever walk away from that TV contract. Any school president that does so ought to be fired on the spot. If you're in the SEC, financially, there's no better place to be. And for that reason, we can end any talk of Arkansas moving right now.

To me, if Mizzou and Nebraska do leave, the quick fix would be BYU and Utah. I'm sure those schools wouldn't mind keeping the rivalry intact, simply in a different conference. Also, adding them would appease Colorado, making the Buffaloes feel less like an outsider in a conference dominated by plains states. Yeah, you lose St. Louis, but adding Salt Lake City would be about the best Big 12 could do after that.

TCU would make sense, but the Big 12 already has a stranglehold on the entire state of Texas. Maybe if they expand to 14 with UNLV or Colorado State ...