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Big Education Bubble Bursting? Mid-Tier College's Enrollment Falls Short

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by YankeeFan, Jul 26, 2013.

  1. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Looks like the easy money is coming to an end for some of these schools.

    Maybe we'll see some real innovation as schools have to compete for students and dollars.

  2. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    I don't know how much of a surprise this is. As the story notes, the birth rate is a huge factor here. The kids entering college now were born sometime around 1995, which was on the early side of a significant declining trend. The birth rate in particular among affluent people -- i.e. "college material" -- has been getting low enough that the experts are concerned we aren't achieving the replacement rate. And not as many kids applying to college would be the manifestation of that.

    This chart shows birth rate by year. It crested at 4.2 million births and 16.7 per 1,000 population in 1990, which would track to a damn crowded collegiate field around 2008. By 1995 it was down to 3.9 million and 14.8 per 1,000; by 2002 it was 4 million total and only 13.9 per 1,000. That rate has held steady since then.

    So, parents, if your kids were born in the mid-1990s or later, some good news!

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